FXUS64 KMEG 241811
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LARGE AREA OF
RAIN COVERS MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THIS
AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WATCHES LOOK GOOD AT THIS MOMENT. WILL NEED
TO SEND AN UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
ARS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...A POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF EVERYTHING
WEATHER AND WATER WISE DURING THE NEXT 30 TO 36 HOURS.
HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IN THE WATCH AREA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
BACK IN EAST TEXAS DOES NOT BEGIN ITS EASTWARD ACCELERATION UNTIL
AFTER 12Z. AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES OF QPF IS
POSSIBLE.
HIGH WINDS...EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 09Z CHRISTMAS DAY
BASED ON 00Z MODEL TRENDS. THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. LEFT THE HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE DUE TO THE
50-60 KNOTS WINDS AT 925 MB LEVEL. IF THESE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AT TIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL NEED A HIGH WIND
WARNING.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND
12Z IN WESTERN LA AND PUSH RAPIDLY TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO OCCLUDE AROUND MIDDAY WHICH SHOULD CUT
OFF THE MINIMAL INSTABILITY POTENTIAL FOR EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTH CENTRAL MS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR NORTHERN EXTENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WINTER WEATHER...00Z MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS ALLOWS DEFORMATION ZONE
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT AND EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP ALMOST
20 DEGREES CELSIUS IN A 12 HOUR TIME FRAME. IT APPEARS SNOW WILL
MIX WITH RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST OF LINE FROM WYNNE AR TO MARTIN TN.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A STACKED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
OVER IOWA IS SLOW TO PROGRESS EAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN H5 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND TAP GULF MOISTURE. LEFT THE
EXISTING FORECAST IN PLACE.
OKULSKI
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE.
SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. PLACED TEMPOS AT ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR +RA.
REMOVED THUNDER MENTION AT ALL SITES FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE
BETTER CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. BELIEVE CIGS WILL
NOT GO BELOW LIFR EVEN WITH +RA. KEPT VSBYS NO WORSE THAN IFR
ATTM.
WIND SHEAR WILL STILL BE A FACTOR AT ALL SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT 925 MB WINDS AROUND THE 50-60KT RANGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SURFACE WINDS...AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
MENTIONED -SN AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KTUP. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS COLD AIR ALOFT
PUSHES IN WITH ENHANCED H5 HEIGHT FALLS. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AS
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 33 39 28 40 / 80 20 10 10
MKL 34 37 25 40 / 90 20 10 10
JBR 32 36 24 37 / 90 20 10 10
TUP 36 41 27 41 / 90 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
HIGH WIND WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
HIGH WIND WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HIGH WIND WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HIGH WIND WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-
DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
