FXUS63 KLMK 300455
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
...FORECAST UPDATE...
WILL DO AN EVENING UPDATE TO CLEAN UP EVENING WORDING. ALSO UPDATING
TO BETTER TREND THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL KY CURRENTLY...AND
THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER PAH'S AREA THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ALSO ENDED POPS FASTER DURING THE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY OVER THE S AND E SECTIONS OF THE CWA. EVERYTHING ELSE PRETTY
MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE EVENING. EXPECT SOMETIMES MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH GENERALLY.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SAINT
LOUIS TO THE ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
WHEN WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH ENHANCES LIFT AND THE LOW AND MID LEVEL JET INCREASES. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. AREAS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH QPF VALUES BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT A QUARTER INCH OF LESS. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO
AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY
BEFORE DRYING OUT BY MIDDAY. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AFTER RAINFALL ENDS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TOMORROW AS COLDER
CANADIAN AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE PROGRESSION OF A
DEEP SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST JUST UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME THE FIRST ARCTIC BLAST OF THE SEASON WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLY HEADED TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BEFORE THE COLD AIR
AND WILL BASICALLY BE EAST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES
IN THE AREA. SO AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AS THE COLDER AIR SQUEEZES THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ATMOSPHERE.
THE BIG STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TRANSITION TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. READINGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A
COLD START TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW AND MID 50S. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
WARM EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BUT ONCE THE COLD
AIR ARRIVE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40
DEGREES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A TRANQUIL BUT COLD WEEKEND WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION. THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A ZONAL FLOW
BUT NOT UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SO WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER. READINGS WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE SOME SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN COOL.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
LIFR CIGS MAY AFFECT AREA TERMINALS...
WITH THE COLD FRONT BEARING DOWN ON SDF AND BWG...WINDS WILL SOON
SHIFT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS TO NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN. THE FROPA AT LEX SHOULD BE AROUND 08Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
DRIZZLE IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-MORNING. CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AND
PERHAPS WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CIGS. VSBYS SHOULD STAY IFR OR
HIGHER...BUT WITH AREAS OF THICKER DRIZZLE...BRIEF LIFR VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIFR CAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM
ROUGHLY 08-13Z. HAVE TEMPOS FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AT LEX AND BWG
TOWARDS 12Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL BLANKET THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AND WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE EAST BETWEEN 16-19Z. UNTIL
THEN...WILL CONTINUE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM -DZ AND BR. LOOKS LIKE
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARDS THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE FOG MAY BE
A FACTOR TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........AL
SHORT TERM.....LMS
LONG TERM......JA
AVIATION.......AL
