FXUS61 KCLE 231129
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST TONIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. THIS LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THINGS ARE PRETTY QUIET RIGHT NOW WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES OVER
FAR SW AREAS. SOME CLEARING OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE NIGHT BUT
CLOUDS HAVE NOW MOVED BACK OVER MOST OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO TRY TO WORK IN FROM THE NE TODAY. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD
SEE QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES
OF THE SUN. TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL AGAIN BE FAIRLY NEUTRAL SO
SEE NO BIG WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF TUESDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS
SIMILAR SHIFTING THE SURFACE RIDGE WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WARM FRONT FROM THIS LOW
WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. MOST OF THE
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN BUT IT COULD START AS A MIX
IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS WILL WARM OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER 30S AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A DRY SLOT BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST. PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME
SNOW SHOWERS A GOOD BET BY EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP
THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

ALSO HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS NW
PA ON FRIDAY. 925 MB FLOW GETS TO 45 KNOTS AND LAKESHORE AREAS
COULD END UP NEEDING SOME SORT OF WIND HEADLINE. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO PLAYED OUT ON DECEMBER 9TH. THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING
THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC 
SUNDAY NIGHT MOVING NORTHEAST. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER BACK 
OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG 
WITH A W TO NW FLOW OF COLD AIR. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH 
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST 
PENNSYLVANIA. ECMWF WAS LITTLE FASTER BRINGING A HIGH PRESSURE BACK 
OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING WHILE GFS WAS SLOWER KEEPING A NW 
FLOW COLD AIR OVER THE AREA AND SNOW SHOWERS. STILL HELD ONTO SOME 
LINGER SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO THE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATINARY TODAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE KEEPING SOME
MVFR CLOUDS AROUND ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND OVER THE INLAND AREAS
OF NE OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA. THE COMBINDATION OF DRIER AIR AND WINDS
VEERING SLIGHTLY SHOULD ALLOW THE LOWER MVFR CLOUDS TO SCATTERED
OUT BY AROUND 18Z. WESTERN AREAS HAVE WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
6-10K...AND THEY WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY IN
CLOUDS AND OR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY IN THE 5 TO 15KT RANGE WILL MAKE FOR A CHOPPY 
LAKE BUT WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. 
WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20KT RANGE OUT OF THE ENE ON THURSDAY AND A 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO IOWA BY FRIDAY 
EVENING. THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT 
LAKES ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED AT 
LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA 
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. WINDS 
SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...RANDEL