FXUS64 KEWX 251133
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
533 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CEILINGS MAY
APPROACH MVFR LEVELS AT SAT AFTER 12Z SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUILDS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE
TX COAST. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FAST ZONAL PATTERN SHOULD REDUCE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND RETURN A SOUTH WIND TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF SAT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AND BECOME MOSTLY OUT
OF THE N/NE FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS CIRRUS INDICATES THE APPROACH OF YET
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN, HOWEVER WITH CIRRUS AND
ONGOING FLOW OFF THE SNOW FIELD TO OUR NORTH, HAVE GONE COLDER
THAN MAV AND CLOSER TO MET TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A COASTAL LOW DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS DRIZZLE ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS SATURDAY
AGAIN CLOSER TO MET. COASTAL LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT ENDING THE POPS. MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENCY
AND CONSENSUS ISSUES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE MAINTAINED POPS
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET OR SNOW HAS DECREASED AND HAVE REMOVED THEIR
MENTION. HOWEVER, EXPECT NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS EVENTUALLY CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. FYI, THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AFTER THE NEW YEAR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 32 50 34 56 / 0 - 20 20 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 51 26 50 29 56 / 0 - 20 20 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 53 30 50 32 57 / 0 - 20 20 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 28 49 28 53 / 0 - 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 57 33 58 31 59 / 0 - - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 48 27 50 30 52 / 0 - 10 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 55 29 52 31 58 / 0 - 10 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 30 50 32 57 / 0 - 20 20 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 52 31 48 35 57 / 0 - 30 30 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 55 31 50 35 58 / 0 - 20 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 55 33 50 36 59 / 0 - 20 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/18
