FXUS64 KBMX 281139
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
539 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE NOT AS COLD AS YESTERDAYS 
READINGS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL START OUT NEAR FREEZING. NICE 
WARM-UP TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING 
SURFACE RIDGE. AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AS A 
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST. THERE MAY A 
BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONGER 
SHORT WAVE PUSHES THRU THE MIDWEST STATES AND PUSHES OUT INITIAL 
SHORT WAVE TROF. THIS NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL PUSH QUICKLY 
EASTWARD AND PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY. 
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED 
WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DECENT FORCING ALONG FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE 
GOOD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA... AND 
RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL RANGE.

STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL PUSH BOUNDARY INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD END OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING AS MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES
IN BEHIND FRONT. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY RAIN FREE AS THERE
SHOULD BE A 24 HOUR PERIOD OF NO RAINFALL AS CUT-OFF LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEGINS TO INTENSIFY AND PUSH EASTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE LOOK OF A CLASSIC GULF LOW SET-UP AND THERE
WOULD LIKELY SOME WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS IF THIS HAPPENED IN
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO WAVES OF RAIN WITH
THIS EVENT. FIRST WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW AND IT
WILL CONTAIN MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER RAINFALL. WITH SURFACE
LOW EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...THERE WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE NEXT WAVE OF
RAIN WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LOW PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$