FXUS62 KMHX 280201
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
901 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W MONDAY
AND MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NE AND IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM FRI...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERNIGHT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. UPDATED PRODUCTS TO DROP WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER BANKS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. GRDNT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT ESPCLY NE CST AS DEEP LOW DEPARTS TO THE N.
MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WILL WIND DECOUPLE INLAND FROM THE
CST. APPEARS LATE TONIGHT THAT MAY OCCUR AND WITH CLR SKIES AND
LOW DEWPTS TEMPS WILL DROP QUICK IF WINDS DO GO LIGHT. WILL
UPGRADE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR POSS A PERIOD OF
TEMPS AOB FREEZING TOWARD SAT MORN. BEACHES WILL MAINTAIN A GOOD
BREEZE WITH LOWS MAINLY LOWER 40S. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL KEEP
WATER LVLS HIGH ON EASTERN PORTION OF PAMLICO SOUND HOWEVER
APPEARS WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MODERATE
FLOODING SO WILL LOWER COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRI...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MCLR TO AT WORST PC.
LOW LVL THICKNESS INCREASE A BIT SAT AFTN AND THIS WILL YIELD
HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MCLR SKIES WILL GO AOB COOLEST GUIDANCE SAT NIGHT WITH MID 30S
COOLER INLAND SPOTS TO LOW/MID 40S OBX. LOW LVL THICKNESSES
INCREASE SUN AS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SFC WINDS BECOME SW. WITH
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN WILL SEE TEMPS APPROACH 70 WARMER INLAND
SPOTS WITH MID 60S OBX. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON. KEPT SLIGHT POP LATER MON AFTN FOR INLAND AREAS
HOWEVER BASED ON LATEST MDLS APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD
OFF TIL MON NIGHT. NICE AND MILD AGAIN MON WITH HIGHS AGAIN
AROUND 70 INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRI...ACTIVE WX EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. FRONT
WILL CROSS REGION MON NIGHT. MDLS SHOWING DECENT BAND OF MOISTURE
AND QPF ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT...BASED ON THIS BUMPED POPS UP TO
HIGH CHC MON NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUE AND KEPT ONLY
SLIGHT POP EARLY TUE CST. HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN LATER TUE
AND BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE TUE NIGHT. LATER WED AND WED
NIGHT LOOK WET AS SRN STREAM SRT WAVE DAMPENS OUT AS IT LIFTS TO
THE NW OF REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH REMNANTS OF FRONT
TO THE S AND LEAD TO POSS CYCLOGENISIS NEAR THE CST. BOTH EMCWF
AND GFS SHOW LOTS OF QPF MAINLY WED AFTN AND NIGHT. BUMPED POPS
UP TO JUST BELOW LIKELY SINCE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
PRECIP SHLD END FAIRLY FAST THU MORN AS SRT WAVE AND POSS SFC LOW
MOVE NE OF REGION. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W FRI.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM...CLEAR SKIES OVER TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND A
LITTLE BREEZY WITH 15G20KTS COMMON. WIND WILL DROP AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. DRY AIR COMING INTO AREA WITH WEST FLOW SO NO FOG EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING POSSIBLE MVFR SKIES WITH
IT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 115 PM...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL LOOSEN. EXPECT WIND
TO BE SCA NORTH OF LOOKOUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS GRADIENT
LOOSENS. MODELS SEEM TO BE RUNNING HIGHER ON WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO
CONDITIONS. SO WILL UNDERCUT THEM.
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LOOSENING GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE NEVER REALLY MAKES IT INTO THE
AREA AND WIND WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. AS FRONT APPROACHES AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL START TO
PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY WITH FROPA EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
.COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 115 PM...WILL DROP COASTAL FLOOD WARNING BEFORE THE FIRST
PERIOD AS WATERS GOING DOWN AND LOW TIDE THIS EVENING. LOW WATERS ON
WEST SIDE OF SOUNDS NOT A PROBLEM AT THIS TIME...AND DONT EXPECT IT
TO BE ONE TONIGHT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ103-104.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ080-081-092>094-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
135-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG
MARINE...CGG
