FXUS63 KICT 111123
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
523 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS
KANSAS. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
COOLER SNOW PACK IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
JAKUB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
TODAY:
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES GIVEN SNOW
PACK NORTH/WEST OF ICT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THERE
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL MUCH COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT:
BIGGER CHALLENGE IS VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH A
COUPLE OF RIPPLES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH FREEZING AT ONSET MID SAT MORNING...SO WILL NEED A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE IT CHANGES TO DRIZZLE
AROUND MIDDAY. DURATION/ACCUMULATION SHOULD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. WITH CONTINUE INFLUX OF MOISTURE/LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAY
SEE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES LATER SAT OR SAT
NIGHT. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK THIS A BIT CLOSER AND SEE IF A FOG
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. ALSO POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
RESIDUAL SNOW COVER IN CENTRAL KS.
SUN-SUN NIGHT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WITH BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.
MON-THU:
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS FROM EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS MODEL IS ADVERTISING EVEN FASTER ONSET OF COLD AIR WITH
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MOST OF FORECAST AREA BY 1200 UTC MON. IF
THIS VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM ON MON WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES MORE LIKELY. GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE ONSET...BUT HAVE STARTED DOWNHILL TREND IN
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DAYSHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
DROP EVEN MORE. ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY SLASHED DEWPOINTS IN THE COLD
AIR. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 40 24 42 28 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 35 20 38 20 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 37 22 40 25 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 39 23 41 29 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 41 25 43 31 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELL 31 8 33 14 / 0 0 10 0
GREAT BEND 32 11 34 16 / 0 0 10 0
SALINA 32 14 34 18 / 0 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 35 18 36 19 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 43 25 41 33 / 10 10 20 10
CHANUTE 41 24 41 30 / 10 10 20 10
IOLA 41 24 40 30 / 10 10 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 42 25 41 33 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
