FXUS63 KDVN 011933
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
130 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY MILD DAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING.  SKIES ARE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AS LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW TEXAS TO ROTATE INTO OHIO
VALLEY NEXT 24-36 HOURS BRINGING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF DIGGING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER HIGH PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES
AT 2 PM ARE RUNNING MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES...OR 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS LOTS OF ENERGY
DIVING INTO LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.    ..NICHOLS..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM SOUTH PLAINS STORM
SYSTEM.  COOL FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ALL OF AREA BY 3 AM WITH WINDS
AND CAA SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODELS PER 18Z SURFACE VERIFICATION.
COMBINED WITH MOST HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT...HAVE GONE
MINS AT OR BELOW GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO
20 PLUS MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.  HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS
BELOW GUIDANCE DUE TO STRONG CAA...THICK VEIL OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES.  NOTE...IF SOME SUNSHINE DOES OCCUR
THEN MAX TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR.  ANALYSIS SUPPORTS SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SPRINKLES MAY
IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A MACOMB TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS
LINE AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN AFTERNOON AND FAR NW
SECTIONS OF UPPER LOW DEFORMATION ZONE RACES NE.   ANY AMOUNTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE.   ..NICHOLS..

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A MILD NOVEMBER ITS PAY BACK TIME. OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL
ADVERTISE A DEEP TROUGH IN THE CENTER OF THE NATION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS OCCURRING AS MAJOR SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF THE GULF COAST
REGION AND ON UP THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF/UKMET JUST
GRAZE OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS/GEM
KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE DVN CWA. FOR
CONTINUITY/COORDINATION SAKE WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW IN OUR FAR EASTERN IL COUNTIES. ANY ACCUMULATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE VERY MINOR IF ANY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY POURING TRUE ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. 850 MB
TEMPS PLUNGE TO -16C WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -35C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE MINOR IF ANY.
TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND WILL FORECAST
MAX TEMPS BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THE COLDEST
DAY SHOULD BE FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE CWA HAVING HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. WILL BE QUITE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AFTER SUCH A MILD NOVEMBER.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HOWEVER THE COLD AIR HAS SETTLED
INTO THE COUNTRY NOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING BELOW 0C THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. THIS MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING SITUATION WITH THE
ECMWF/GFS HINTING AT A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES YET TO BE
DETERMINED DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. STAY TUNED.
..HAASE..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD WITH VSBYS AOA 7 MILES.  BKN-OVC MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS TO ARRIVE AFTER 06Z.  EXPECT CIGS OF 12-20K AGL TO ARRIVE
AROUND 06Z WITH LOWEST CIGS AT BRL TERMINAL OF 12K AGL CIRCA 18-24Z.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY MID DAY COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP AFTER 14Z LOWEST 2K AGL UNTIL DUSK
WEDNESDAY.   ..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

NICHOLS/HAASE