FXUS63 KGLD 280526
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1026 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
1251 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2009
THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE INHERITED FCST. TODAY IS THE
WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
CWA LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/ TOMORROW MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR -SN
STILL EXISTS FOR THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ASSOC WITH WEAK QG FORCING TETHERED TO AN APPROACHING H5
S/WV TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WELL
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. WHAT SN DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT AND NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH. SFC TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT COOL DOWN TOWARD CLIMO NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
MODIFICATION MONDAY INTO TUE.
A MORE SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE CWA EARLY
WED WITH A SURGE OF MODIFIED POLAR AIR ON THUR. THE LATEST
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE DATA DEPICT FOR THE REALLY COLD AIR TO REMAIN
WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SN WED
AFTERNOON INTO THR. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS HAS REALLY
BACKED OFF FROM ADVECTING VERY COLD AIR IN HERE, WHILE THE COLDER
EC HAS ALSO TRENDED TOWARD A WARMER SOLUTION. ALL AND ALL, I DID
NOT CHANGE THE INHERITED FCST OR THAT FROM THE HPC AS WE HAVE WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE CORRECT TRENDS FOR THE FAR OUTER PERIODS.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
1020 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2009
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. THESE WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15G25KT RANGE BETWEEN 16Z-18Z AS COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY 00Z SHOULD LOSE THE
GUSTS AS DEEP MIXING ENDS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CIRRUS WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. ONE ITEM TO WATCH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z MAINLY AT KGLD AS MOISTURE BELOW 850MB
INCREASES FROM THE NORTH. RIGHT NOW RH VALUES BELOW LEVELS NEEDED
TO CREATE A BKN DECK SO NO NEED PRESENTLY TO TRY AND INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL.
07
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
