FXUS63 KFGF 252029
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
229 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE CURRENT WINTER STORM AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES. THE STORM IS PANNING OUT SO FAR AS EXPECTED...WITH A
WELL DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE THE NAM FOR DETAILS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
IN THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST IN OPEN COUNTRY. THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY WHERE MORE POWDER SNOW
HAS FALLEN...AND SFC WINDS ARE A BIT STRONGER GIVEN COLDER SFC
ADVECTION AND THE VALLEY COMPONENT. WHILE IT WON/T ALWAYS BE A
BLIZZARD IN TOWN...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DRIFTS IN OPEN COUNTRY
AND VSBY LOWER THAN 1/4SM AT TIMES. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER 3 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUING IN A TROWAL WITH THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM. IF
BANDING OCCURS THEN SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE A BIT MORE.

FOR SAT AFTERNOON/SAT NIGHT...THE STORM SHOULD SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS
THE LOW FILLS AND DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING
SNOW IN THE VALLEY ALONG WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. 

BY SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH JUST SOME
FLURRIES EXPECTED. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (MON NIGHT-FRIDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS FEATURE EARLY 
ON...THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TURN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE LATTER SLOWER 
IN MOVING UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN 
STREAM WILL PREDOMINATE WITH WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH OFFERING SPOTTY
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF WAVES PUSH THROUGH. 
SO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WILL LEAVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST DRY. COOL 
DOWN STILL EXPECTED BY LATE NEW YEARS EVE/NEW YEARS DAY AS SURFACE 
HIGH PUSHES DOWN FROM SASKATCHEWAN WITH -20C AND LOWER H85/92
TEMPS. 
         
&&

.AVIATION...
SNOW TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING 
VISIBILITIES AS SNOWFALL RATES/WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. 
IFR LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH IMPROVING 
CONDITIONS TO BE NOTICED FIRST AT KBJI.   

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
     009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.

&&

$$
DK/WJB