FXUS64 KOHX 152114
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
314 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A CLOUDY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF MID TN WITH
COLD ADVECTION UNDERWAY. TEMPERATURES WERE SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE
30S...EXCEPT IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS HAD LEVELED
OUT IN THE MID 30S UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE AFTERNOON SURFACE
CHART SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...FROM GREENSBORO TO ATLANTA AND
MONTGOMERY.
TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND EXTEND DOWN INTO
TN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY FALL TONIGHT...THEN PERHAPS
HAVE A SHARPER DROP OFF TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WINDS DIMINISH AND
SKIES CLEAR. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD COLDER NAM GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND HEIGHTS RISE.
REGIONAL FORECASTS BECOME MORE INTERESTING AND COMPLEX BY THE
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF WILL LIFT ALONG THE EAST
COAST...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT TO PARTS OF
THE APPALACHIAN REGION. IF THIS LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH
INLAND...SOME OF THE MOISTURE (RAIN) COULD PUSH BACK TO THE
PLATEAU ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MODEL TRENDS
BECOME MORE CONSISTENT. THE GREATER CONCERNS FOR MID TN WILL COME
FROM A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES THAT WILL SWING INTO THE
REGION HELPING CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING A COLD PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW.
DEEPEST MOISTURE MEETS UP WITH COLD AIR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SO WE WILL INCREASE SNOW POPS TO 40 PERCENT BY
SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUITABLE FOR MAINLY
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY TEMPS MAY CAUSE
MELTING. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. REASONABLE POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS "SNOW
EVENT" RANGE FROM JUST SOME FLURRIES TO PERHAPS A LOW END ADVISORY
EVENT (1") FOR SOME AREAS. MODELS NOT REALLY PRODUCING MUCH SNOW
FOR MID TN AT THIS TIME.
THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE COLD WX FOR THE
START OF OFFICIAL WINTER. WE WILL GO COLDER THAN MOS/NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES COULD
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR FLURRIES...BUT NOTHING SPECIFIC TO
ADVERTISE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 25 46 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 22 42 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 24 45 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 27 47 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 28 47 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
WAVERLY 23 44 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
13
