FXUS63 KFGF 282135 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SHORT TERM [THIS AFTERNOON - TUE]...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS PCPN THROUGH TONIGHT THAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. OTHER CHALLENGES ARE TIED TO AN
EXPECTED CANADIAN CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE AMERICAN NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. LEANED ON THE NAM AND GFS FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS..BOTH OF WHICH DOWNPLAY ANY PCPN THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEN LEANED ON THE NAM80/GEM FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WHICH
SEEM TO BE PICKING UP ON A MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION FOR THE TUESDAY
SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 12Z AND LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE ARE DOWNPLAYING ANY PCPN THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THAT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THINK ANY
SNOWFLAKES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND...SO MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD ONLY SEE FLURRIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
THE BEST DYNAMICS LOOK LIKE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY FLURRIES SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.

SUNDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE VALLEY AND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY AND SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY MONDAY
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING THERMAL RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S...OR ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS HAS SOME ODD ROBUST PCPN OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LEANED ON THE DRIER MODELS AND JUST THINK
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE IN THAT REGION.

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SEEMS LIKELY TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A
LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO KEPT ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES CLOSE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BEHIND THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED WINDS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY...AND INCLUDED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30
MPH FOR THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THINK THOSE TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED MORE DETAIL IN COMING DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE NON-
DIURNAL EFFECTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION.

.LONG TERM [TUE NIGHT - FRI]...

STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST 
NORTH OF THE FA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THIS SHOWN BY MOST GUIDANCE. 
WHAT HAPPENS TO THIS FEATURE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD STILL NOT 
CERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST 
WILL OCCUR PLACING THE FA IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. BEST SNOW SHOWER 
CHANCES WITH THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND KEPT 
THE LOW POPS. WINDY TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS WELL. TEMPERATURES NEAR 
NORMAL (LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO 
COLD).

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...AND IF THESE WILL 
AFFECT TAF SITES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME ITS HARD TO 
SAY...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WOULD SAY THAT THE 
LOWER CIGS WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN TAF SITES 
(KDVL...KGFK...KTVF...KBJI) THIS EVENING. COULD BE SOME -RASN THIS 
EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
GROCHOCINSKI/TG