FXUS61 KOKX 251801
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
101 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY...THEN IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN HEAD THO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING
WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA BY EARLY/MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW AN H95 INVERSION. LIGHT RAIN/DZ
SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. DON/T EXPECT ANY
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 50 INLAND WITH MID 50S 
CLOSER TO THE WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A 
COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RACE TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  
AT THIS TIME...BOTH SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE ANY 
SUBSTANTIAL PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY WILL KEEP RAIN 
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  INSTABILITY 
REMAINS LIMITED TO NONEXISTENT...SO KEPT PRECIP TYPE -RA. IN 
ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AS THIS 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WIND UP AND MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA.  EXPECT WINDS 
OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE 25 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY 
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...EXPECT 
WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY.  
HOWEVER..DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION AS 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SET UP.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE BULK OF 
THE CLOUD COVER TO FINALLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 ALONG 
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND LI. THIS IS CLOSER TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW 
CLIMATE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP TO 
NEAR FREEZING INLAND...WITH LOWS NEAR THE MID 30S FOR COASTAL 
LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND 
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.  EXPECT TEMPS TO 
REMAIN CLOSER TO CLIMATE NORMS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS LOWERING TO LIFR THIS AFTERNOON AS 
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME 
TIME...EXPECTING VSBY TO FALL TO MVFR AND THEN IFR IN -SHRA/DZ.

GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIGS IMPROVING TO HIGH END MVFR 
AFTER 04Z-06Z IN WAKE OF WEAK DISTURBANCE AND -SHRADZ...BUT 
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS. WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVEL THINKING 
LOW-END MVFR AND IFR. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS...IFR 
FOG WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING PUSH.

EXPECTING IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH A BIT OF 
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRYING ALOFT.

LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HRS.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING 
CIGS AFTER 05Z.

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     25/16Z 07007KT    
     25/17Z 08007KT    
     25/18Z 09007KT    
     25/19Z 09007KT    
     25/20Z 10006KT    
     25/21Z 11005KT    
     25/22Z 11004KT    
     25/23Z VRB03KT
     26/00Z 00000KT
     26/01Z 00000KT
     26/02Z 00000KT
     26/03Z 00000KT

KJFK...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING 
CIGS AFTER 05Z.

KLGA...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING 
CIGS AFTER 05Z.

KTEB...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING 
CIGS AFTER 05Z.

KHPN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING 
CIGS AFTER 06Z.

KSWF...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING 
CIGS AFTER 06Z.

KISP...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING 
CIGS AFTER 07Z.

KBDR...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING 
CIGS AFTER 07Z.

KGON...CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECAST AFTER 07Z.

OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 
THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR BY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING 
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT. 
SATURDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH STRONG WEST WINDS. 
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WEST WINDS. 
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRES SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL PASS TO THE EAST THIS AFTN
AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. ON THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES OFF OF HATTERAS WILL
TRACK E OF LI AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF ME FRI. THE LOW
WILL SLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF THE REGION. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
IN MON AND TUE.

SCA FOR SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WAVES SUBSIDE TO 4-6FT...MAINLY IN
E SWELLS. MARGINAL 5FT SEAS ON THU...THEN MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO
INCREASING WINDS FRI. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO DEEPEN
QUICKLY AS IT REACHES A POINT SE OF CAPE COD THU NIGHT. THIS WILL
PUT THE COASTAL WATERS IN STRONG WNW FLOW FRI-SAT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS ON SUN. GALES CONTINUE TO APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE ERN WATERS. THIS HAZARD WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HWO FOR ALL
COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...