FXUS61 KGYX 260803
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. IT
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST...REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE INVERSION MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY. WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG (AT LEAST DURING THE
MORNING)...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
EQUATION.  FOLLOWED THE COOLER MET MOS FOR TODAY. 

OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET AS WE AWAIT COASTAL SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH. PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAKING OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ANY BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL
REBUFFED BY OTHER CLOUD DECKS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
RAIN BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF COASTAL SYSTEM. FOR MOST
AREAS...PLAYED SLOWER TIMING OF THE ADVANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
PLAYED CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (EXCEPT FAR
SOUTH)...FOLLOWED BY LIKELY POPS AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR SO OVER
SOUTHWEST MAINE AND ADJACENT AREAS IN NH BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TRANSITION TO VERY ACTIVE WX PATTERN IN PLACE FOR THE COMING WEEK
AS A MEAN LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BUILDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST ALLOWING A MEAN LONG WAVE TROF POSITION IN THE EAST!

FIRST UP...ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE UPCOMING DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED S OF CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING AND WILL BE
INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES N INTO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE FRI AND FRI
NGT. BEST TRACK WILL LKLY BE ONE IN BETWEEN THE EURO AND NAM...GFS
TRACK OF BRINGING IT WELL WWD INTO THE WRN MTNS OF ME IS NOT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SOUND. WITH VERY STG UPPER DYNAMICS AND NICE H5
NEG TILTING OCCURRING OFF THE COAST MODELS WILL LKLY BE
DOWNPLAYING INTENSIFICATION. QPF AMTS OF 1.5-3 INCHES EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM FRI AND FRI NGT. SOME TSTMS ALSO PSBL DUE TO VRY
STG UVV DURING FRI MRNG INTO THE ERLY AFTN ALG TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZNE/STG WIND SHEAR OVR MOST AREAS SO WILL MENTION RAIN HVY AT
TIMES WITH PSBL THUNDERSTORMS. NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE PTYPE IN THE
MTNS AND WITH H85 LOW PASSING ACRS SERN NH OR ALONG THE ME COAST
IT IS EXPECTED PCPN TO CHG TO SNOW FRI NGT WITH PSBLY 5+ INCHES IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NRN MOST AREAS OF NH AND WRN ME. TAKING
A SWATH 2.5 DEGS N OF THE H85 TRAJ FRI NGT PUTS HVY SNWS INTO THE
MTNS OF WRN ME. CONSIDERING ITS LATE 4TH PD WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT
ANOTHER LOOK SEE. OVER SRN AREAS PTYPE WILL BE RAIN. WRAPAROUND
ON SAT WILL KEEP SNOW SHWRS GOING IN THE MTNS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS WHILE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF SRN MAINE AND NH WILL SEE RAPIDLY 
IMPROVING CONDS.

ON SUNDAY WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES IN FOR A DECENT DAY BUT YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER AND IS ONE TO ALSO WATCH. 

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MIDWEEK BUT YET ANOTHER LARGE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.  

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS/VSBYS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR IN SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. CEILINGS DROPPING ONCE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG FORMING ONCE AGAIN LATE.

LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDS FRI AND FRI NGT IMPROVING TO VFR IN
THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS ON SAT. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MVFR TO OCNL IFR IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS SAT. VFR
CONDS RETURN TO ALL AREAS SUNDAY BEFORE CONDS DETERIORATE AGAIN
LATE MON.   

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HAVE KEPT UP SCAS FOR SEAS. EXPECT 3 TO 5 FOOTERS
TODAY ALONG THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY DROP FOR A SHORT PERIOD
LATE TODAY...BUT AS NE WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT...SEAS SHOULD POP
BACK UP INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE. PATCHY FOG OVER THE WATERS
WILL LIMIT VSBY AT TIMES.

LONG TERM...A DVLPG COASTAL LOW WILL BE S OF CAPE COD FRI MORNING
MOVING N INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST SCA CRIT FRI AND PSBLY GLW
FRI NGT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE INTENSIFICATION AND ALSO
THE EXACT TRACK. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES SAT IN ITS WAKE
STG NWLY WINDS MAY ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUN BUT ANOTHER COASTAL LOW
MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATER MONDAY AND MON NGT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&
$$