FXUS62 KMHX 251550
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1050 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
THROUGH LATE TODAY...THEN PUSH NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10AM WED...THIS MORNING THE AREA IS UNDER A WEAK SFC PRES
PATTERN THOUGH AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. PRECIP IS FILLING IN
NORTH OF THIS FEATURE OFF THE SC COAST...AND EXPECT THIS TO IMPACT
ESPECIALLY OUR SRN COASTAL WATERS AND PSBLY IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST
INTO THE AFTN HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT IN THIS REGION AS A
RESULT...ESP FOR THE WATERS. SW FLOW ALOFT IS CARRYING A STRETCHED
OUT H5 VORT MAX WITH ASSOCIATED VERY LIGHT RADAR RETURNS NE
THROUGH INLAND SECTIONS OF GEOGIA AND CAROLINAS THIS MORNING.
INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES FROM THIS LATER TODAY...SO
ADDED THAT WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA THAT DIDNT HAVE
ANY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. MODELS AND 88D TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL ZONES AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS AFTN AND HAVE SHOWN THIS IN
OUR QPF GRIDS. EXPECTING A LIGHT QPF EVENT WHERE PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH MOST SPOTS.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY
IN A MIX OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDINESS THAT SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT...AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING NE FROM THE GOMEX.
THIS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO MUCH MORE THAN CURRENT
READINGS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY-HIGHEST COAST AS LOW MOVES WELL OFF THE
COAST AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. QPF
WILL BE LIGHT WHERE IT RAINS MAINLY 1/10 OF AN INCH OR LESS MOST
AREAS WITH A MAX ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF 1/10-1/4 OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. THEN WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH
AND EAST AS MOISTURE STARVED STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA
AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. USED A BLEND OF CONSENSUS 00Z MOS
AND OLD FORECAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S OUTER BANKS. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THANKSGIVING HELPING TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...STRONG/COLD MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY THEN SWING NE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY CU EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND STILL NOT RULING OUT A FEW VERY ISOLD
-SHRA...BUT THINK STRONG 850MB CAA AND DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN WILL
NEGATE THIS SO LEFT OUT OF FORECAST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION
FOLLOWING THE FRONT FRIDAY WILL OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S MOST
LOCATIONS.
DRY WX ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AS VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS WITH
INCREASING THICKNESSES...BUT NIGHTS WILL BE CHILLY WITH MINIMAL
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
FORECASTING M30S INLAND FRI/SAT NIGHTS WITH L-M40S NEAR THE OBX.
PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES
SLIDES OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...THEN
IMPACTS US MON NITE OR TUE. INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS FOR
NOW...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR MID MORNING AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO VFR
THIS AFTN. MAIN PCPN WILL BE ALONG COAST...E OF TAF SITES. VFR TO
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRES FROM
THE SW. OAJ AND EWN SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS CONTINUING INTO THU AS COASTAL LOW MOVES SE OF AREA. LOW MOVES
AWAY ON THU AND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THU
NIGHT. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING ON FRI BUT
BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. VFR CONDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA TO INCREASE WINDS TO
AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTN. EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS TO AROUND 6
FT OUTER PORTIONS OF NRN HALF OF WATERS THIS AFTN.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/MW
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME/MW
AVIATION...JAC/JBM
MARINE...JBM
