FXUS61 KBOX 300958
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY DRY BRISK WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND DRIVEN RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY CHILLY AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM...RADAR SHOWED PRECIPITATION SHRINKING UP
ACROSS EASTERN PA WHICH SEEMED TO BE A CAUSE FOR CONCERN SINCE WE ARE
ADVERTISING CATEGORICAL POPS. BETWEEN 3 AND 4 AM THERE HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. A STRENGTHENING 300 MB JET MAX OF 145 KNOTS WILL
MOVE FROM KENTUCKY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD MAKE RAIN RATHER WIDESPREAD...AS INDICATED ON RADAR OVER WEST
VIRGINIA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO...HAVE LEFT POPS IN THE 80+ PERCENT
RANGE FOR TODAY. AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE-HALF INCH.
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT... WITH 52 DEGREES IN TAUNTON AT 4 AM. HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS
FORECAST MAX TEMPS OF MID AND UPPER 50S IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. MAY EVEN ECLIPSE 60 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST MA WHERE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY BE THIN ENOUGH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TO ALLOW FOR A BIT OF WARMING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LIKE WORCESTER AND BLUE HILL. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO
25 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...ALREADY SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH AT
FALMOUTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN WILL END LATE IN THE DAY
OVER WESTERN MA AND WESTERN CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF MIDNIGHT.
A DECENT SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -8C TO -10C. WILL GET CLOSE TO 32F IN THE BOSTON AREA BUT
ARE STILL FORECASTING ABOVE FREEZING AT LOGAN TUE MORNING.
GFS SHOWS CLOUD COVER TRYING TO RETURN TO THE BERKSHIRES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHEAR VORTICITY CENTER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN SKY COVER GRIDS BUT SINCE IT RETREATS TO THE
NORTH TUE...DOES NOT AFFECT MUCH FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY...NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE AND
A WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 MPH. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
OVERALL...NOT BAD FOR THE FIRST DAY OF DECEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S INTERIOR TO MID 30S ON
THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 IN SOME LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOME AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...
THIS IS A MUCH DIFFERENT TRACK FROM THAT OF 24 HOURS AGO. 00Z MODEL
RUNS FROM LAST NIGHT HAD THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING JUST EAST OF CAPE
COD WHEREAS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THE LOW PRESSURE ANYWHERE
FROM DETROIT /NAM/ TO NEW YORK STATE /GFS AND ECMWF/. THIS DRASTIC
CHANGE KEEPS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE
GREATER IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL ACTUALLY BE FROM AN INLAND TRACK
STORM AS WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AND FROM THE SOUTH...LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
REGARDLESS...WIND DRIVEN RAIN FOR A PERIOD FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY IS A GIVEN IN ALL OF THE ABOVE SOLUTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE NO PROBLEM KEEPING THE HIGH LIKELY POPS OR EVEN
POSSIBLY BUMPING THEM UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING DOESN/T LOOK
PROBABLE AS THE STORM IS MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THE USUAL POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY.
OUR MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENT WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THESE TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS WITH THE INCONSISTENCY
IN TRACK FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE MODELS. IN ORDER FOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR...THE LOW
WOULD HAVE TO PASS WEST OF THE REGION ALLOWING THE REGION TO WARM
SECTOR. WHILE THIS IS THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTION...IT IS STILL A
WAYS OUT SO ITS NOT SET IN STONE. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WEST THE
LOW TRACKS. FINALLY...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY MORNING BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INSERT
INTO THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AND RAIN SHOWERS REDUCING
VSBY TO 4 OR 5 MILES. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND 17Z
AT BOS. SW WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 24 KT AT FMH AT 430 AM AND THESE
GUSTS WILL BECOME COMMON FROM SOUTH OF BOS TO HYA/ACK AND ALONG THE
RI COAST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL END AT BDL/BAF/MHT BY ROUGHLY 20Z...AND AT BOS/PVD BY 22-23Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS LEFT IN THE 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME. EXPECTING NW WIND GUSTS TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT.
TUE...VFR.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SEAS
ALREADY UP TO 7 FT AT BUOY 44097 SOUTHWEST OF MARTHAS VINEYARD. HENCE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...WINDS MAY DECREASE BRIEFLY BUT THEN NW WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE EASTERN WATERS...SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO THOSE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TONIGHT SO
THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE AS WELL.
TUESDAY... NW WINDS WILL GRADUALY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE. BUT
THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW 5 FT SEAS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST
WATERS WHICH MIGHT REQUIRE THE SCA TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUE IN LATER
FORECAST ISSUANCES.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS AND SEAS 3
TO 5 FEET WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...STRONG SMALL CRAFT WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISH SLOWLY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. HIGH SEAS WILL LINGER...PARTICULARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR THIS
SEASON. THE RECORD LATEST IN THE SEASON THAT BOSTON HAS RECORDED ITS
FIRST 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975.
CURRENTLY...WE ARE FORECASTING A LOW OF 34 AND 35 DEGREES ON THE
MORNINGS OF 12/1 AND 12/2...RESPECTIVELY. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32 IN
BOSTON IS AROUND NOVEMBER 4TH. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL LATEST
OCCURRING FREEZING TEMP AT BOSTON... WE DID ESTABLISH THE 3RD
EARLIEST MINOR SNOWFALL AT LOGAN AIRPORT THIS FALL ON OCTOBER 18TH.
NOVEMBER WILL BE TOP 10 WARMEST... STATUS THRU 11/28
THERE ARE NO PROJECTIONS AS TO FINAL OUTCOME BUT A RANKING IN THE TOP
10 WARMEST IS ASSURED FOR MOST OR ALL OF THESE 100 PLUS YEAR LOCATIONS.
RECENT TOP 10 WARMEST WAS 2006...ONE OF THE WARMEST NOVEMBERS ON
RECORD.
BELOW IS THE CURRENT AVG FOR THE MONTH FROM OUR PRELIMINARY CF6...AS
WELL AS THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...THE TOP 10 WARMEST RANKING AND
CLOSE WITH THE 2006 WARMEST NOV RANKING REFERENCE.
BOS 48.9 PLUS 3.7 RANKED A STRONG NUMBER 6 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
BDL 46.5 PLUS 4.4 RANKED NUMBER 5 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
PVD 49.0 PLUS 4.9 RANKED A SOLID NUMBER 3. 2006 WAS 2ND WARMEST.
ORH 44.8 PLUS 4.8 RANKED NUMBER 4. 2006 WAS WARMEST EVER NOV
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ232>234-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ231-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/GAF
MARINE...RLG/GAF
CLIMATE...DRAG
