FXUS63 KMKX 250928
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR TREND ALL SUPPORT RAIN FOR THE MORNING
HOURS AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND MOVES INTO IOWA.
DECENT DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND FROTOGENESIS LOBE
ROTATE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 THSD FEET ABOVE THE GROUND ARE PROGGED TO BE 50-55 KNOTS THIS
MORNING...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ARE SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25/26 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THIS PUTS IT INTO THE
WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM SHEBOYGAN
TO KENOSHA FROM 5 AM TO NOON.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/
SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
VORT MAX AND VORTICTY LOBE ROTATING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE...PREVIOUS FORECAST OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IS ON TRACK. LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW
FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD AS MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS SQUEEZED
OUT WITH THICKNESS COOLING. DON/T EXPECT MORE THEN A INCH OR SO OF
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS STILL SUGGEST STACKED SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AND AND THEN HEAD EAST/NORTHEAST
ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVELS ARE STILL MOIST AND WINDS ARE STILL
CYCLONIC...SO SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW FOR SATURDAY...DROPPING TO
JUST A CHANCE ON SUNDAY....AROUND ANOTHER INCH OR SO SATURDAY.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MODELS FINALLY DRY THINGS OUT BY NOON MONDAY AS RIDGING TAKES
PLACE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST
FOR MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS
WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WISCONSIN. MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A COUPLE SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND LWR CIGS FOR BULK OF THE PERIOD...HWVR AGAIN 
MAY BE SEVERAL PERIODS OF VFR CIGS AT ERN TAF SITES LTR THIS MRNG.  
STEADY RAIN WL TURN MORE SCATTERED LTR THIS MRNG AND CHANGE OVER 
TO OCCASIONAL -SN THIS AFTN AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST.  STRONGEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY 
DIMINISHING. 

&&

.MARINE...DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVR MO SLIDES NORTHWARD INTO IA THIS 
MRNG REACHING ITS DEEPEST PRESSURE.  3 HOUR PRES FALLS OF 4 TO 6 MB 
OVER SRN LK MI THIS MRNG.  DESPITE STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 
1500FT...WINDS AT BASE OF INVERSION STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35 
TO 40KT RANGE WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO THE SURFACE. STILL 
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS REACHING 35KTS THIS MRNG AT LAKE SURFACE SO WL 
CONT GALE WARNING THRU 18Z.  SFC LOW BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS 
AFTN THRU SAT AS IT MEANDERS IN OUR DIRECTION.  WNDS AND WAVES WL 
LINGER AT SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS INTO SAT BEFORE SETTLING 
DOWN.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.

LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...34
AVIATION/MARINE...11