FXUS61 KBTV 091742
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1242 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WINTRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE
ON A MORE SHOWERY CHARACTER BY LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT GUSTY
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
LAKE ONTARIO SNOWBELTS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1135 AM EST WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY SPEAKING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS WINDING DOWN IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. RADAR
INDICATES DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY RAPIDLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AS THIS DRY AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION...IT IS
ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN THE PRECIPITATION. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WE WILL SEE STEADY SNOW CHANGE TO SHOWERS...WITH SOME POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN...AND MIXING INTO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO WARM.
SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING...AND WE WILL SEE STEADY SNOW CHANGE TO
SNOW SHOWERS WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM
AIR ABOVE THE SFC MOVES UP THE CT RIVER VALLEY. FOR THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY...MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO... AND MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. THUS THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION. ALOFT WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY...WHILE THE NE COLD AIR
DRAINAGE CONTINUES AT THE SFC. THIS WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...SNOW HAS TAPERED TO SHOWERS. AGAIN...WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT...WE COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
IN POCKETS OF LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED
ABOVE FREEZING. THE GOOD NEWS IS...KSLK HAS WARMED TO 33 DEGREES
WITH A SE WIND. LATER TONIGHT THOSE LAKE ONTARIO SHOWERS WILL BE
REDIRECTED WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE DACKS MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW.
SPEAKING OF WINDS...
WINDS ARE STRONGEST ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
AND OUT OF THE E-W ORIENTED GAPS. GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED. WE ARE NEAR OUR PEAK FOR THE WIND EVENT.. BUT WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES TO
CONTINUE AT THIS MAGNITUDE THROUGH 5 PM...WITH GUSTS FURTHER DIMINISHING
TO 35 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW. ELSEWHERE...GUSTY
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE DACKS IN NRN NY AND TO THE LEE OF WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NERN VT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 247 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BY TONIGHT BEST FORCING PUSHES NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION AS DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. THEREFORE PCPN
WILL TAKE ON A MORE DRIZZLY/SHOWERY CHARACTER AS TEMPS HOLD
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN
DECENT CHC TO LIKELY POPS HERE...BUT AGAIN ADDL PCPN WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER. STRONG SFC COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATER AT NIGHT WITH FLOW VEERING FROM SOUTH TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND CAA BEGINNING IN EARNEST. WILL OFFER A BLEND
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS HERE WITH AGAIN TEMPS HOLDING STEADY
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN FALLING DURING THE LATER OVERNIGHT
HOURS TOWARD MORNING.
THEREAFTER...PRIMARY WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE GUSTY WINDS AND
SCT/NUMEROUS MTN/LK EFFECT SHSN. POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW
LIKELY TO BE QUITE GUSTY DURING THURSDAY WITH GUST SPEEDS EASILY
ECLIPSING 35 MPH...ESP IN FAVORED AREAS OF THE SLV AND CT RVR
VALLEY WHICH TEND TO SEE HIGHER SPEEDS IN THESE REGIMES. AS MEAN
925-850 MB TEMPS FALL SHARPLY DURING THE DAY...LAKE EFFECT AND
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHSN SHOULD BLOSSOM CONSIDERABLY WITH
ADDL ACCUM LIKELY...ESP IN THE LK ONTARIO SNOWBELTS OF SRN ST
LAWRENCE/SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES. TEMPS REALLY GOING NOWHERE AND
WILL HIGHLIGHT READINGS ONLY A TAD ABOVE PRIOR NIGHT'S MINS IN
THE GRIDDED DATASET.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WINDS SLOWLY ABATE THOUGH WITH
P-GRAD REMAINING FAIRLY TIGHT...CONDS STILL LIKELY TO BE BREEZY
IN MANY AREAS. OF MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF LK
EFFECT AND MTN SHSN WHERE ADDL ACCUM LIKELY TO THE LEE OF LK
ONTARIO WHERE FUTURE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPS WILL RUN ON
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS 14 TO 22 AND HIGHS 18 TO 26.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM EST TUESDAY...W/ SFC RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...FRI NGT INTO SAT WILL HAVE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
WESTERLY...ALLOWING FOR LK EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR N
NY NEAR LK ONTARIO. RIDGE DOES BUILD N INTO THE REGION SAT NGT
INTO SUNDAY FOR A NICE CD DAY FOR THE CWA. HAVE KEPT FAIRLY
CONSISTENT HIGHS/LOWS FOR ENTIRE CWA BASED ON WIND REGIME. 850
TEMPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME VARY VERY SLIGHTLY. NEXT SFC LOW TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA BY SUN
AFTNOON. EXPECTING QPF TO BE LGT BASED ON SFC LOW TRACK TO THE
N...BUT WITH CD POOL OF 850 TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO -22C/-26C BY
EVENING FROM DAY HIGHS NEAR -8C. POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS/FLASH
FREEZE AS THIS PUSHES E...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. W/ THIS FROPA...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW ALLOWING FOR LEFTOVER
UPSLOPE -SW MONDAY MORNING...CLRING BY MDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS E OVER THE AREA AND REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE
AREA AS SFC SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIFT N AND E...GOING FROM
IFR/LIFR TO VFR. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS W/ -SHSN AND FG THRU 00Z
THURSDAY. TEMPS RISING OVER THE AREA MAY ALSO ALLOW -RW TO MIX IN.
WINDS 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS. WIND SHEAR STILL POSSIBLE THRU
00Z THRU FOR MOST AREAS UP TO 45-55KTS AT 2KFT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
DIRECTION TO THE WSW BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOME MVFR -SHSN/CEILINGS
FROM LK EFFECT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OVER N NY.
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW PRES DEPARTS TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DEVELOPING 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30
KT AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY. VFR ON
SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-012-018-019.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
VTZ001-002-005-009-011-016-017.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ006-011-
016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ029>031-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ026>028-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...AMF/JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/NEILES
