FXUS64 KTSA 220519
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
...UPDATE...
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS OVERSPREADING ALL SITES AFTER 12-15Z.
EXPECT AREAS OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE DAY AND EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR/VLIFR CIGS
AT ALL SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST LARGELY ON TRACK. LOW CLOUDS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE
THE AREA TOWARD MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WITH HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING IN AND WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DROP AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TWEAKED MINS UP A FEW
DEGREES NORTH OF I-40 BUT LEFT THE REST OF THE AREA AS IS. THE
REST OF THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
00Z NAM JUST NOW COMING IN...AND ITS SOLUTION FOR THE MIDWEEK
SYSTEM DIVERGES QUITE A BIT FROM ITS 18Z RUN AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE MODEL SUITE. 00Z NAM SOLUTION HAS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...MORE TOWARD CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH VERY LITTLE WRAPAROUND QPF /AND
HENCE...SNOW/ DEPICTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW SOLUTIONS OF THE REST OF THE MODEL
SUITE TO SEE IF ANY TREND TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION EXISTS...OR IF
IT CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER THAT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE.
OBVIOUSLY WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO ANY PART OF OUR FORECAST MESSAGE
BASED ON THIS RUN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 45 57 52 64 / 0 20 70 60
FSM 37 56 51 64 / 0 20 90 80
MLC 47 58 55 66 / 0 20 70 60
BVO 35 54 47 63 / 0 20 70 60
FYV 37 55 50 60 / 0 20 90 80
BYV 36 54 47 59 / 0 20 90 90
MKO 41 57 51 64 / 0 20 80 70
MIO 41 54 49 63 / 0 20 80 80
F10 45 56 53 66 / 0 20 70 60
HHW 45 60 57 66 / 0 20 70 70
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
