FXUS64 KHGX 281858
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1258 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.AVIATION...
OVERCAST 4000 TO 5000 FOOT LAYER HAS OVERSPREAD AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION. EVEN ISOLD SHOWERS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
THEY APPROACH THE TAF SITES. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A LOWERING OF CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND IS MIXED UP INTO A STRATUS
DECK BY SE FLOW. LOW CIGS SHOULD HANG IN TOMORROW MORNING
INLAND...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SEE BROKEN MVFR OR VFR DECK SE TAF SITES
AS THEY BREAK INTO WARM SECTOR. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A QUICK UPDATE...CLOUD DECK AROUND 4000 FT OVER THE SW ZONES AND
SPREADING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH ROUGHLY ON THE 293K SURFACE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS SHOULD OVERTAKE A HARRIS-BRAZOS LINE AROUND 1830Z
AND NORTHEAST ZONES BY 2230Z. ALSO HAVE A COUPLE OF "COLD CORE"
SHOWERS NORTH OF MADISONVILLE THAT ARE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO HOUSTON COUNTY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
GPS IPWV OF .45-.85" AT 03Z UP TO .75-1.25" AT 15Z AND AS SW LLJ
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THESE VALUES TO INCREASE FURTHER
AND MAY AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BENEATH THE WARM
NOSE AT 750MB. WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN
LLVLS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THRU THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE MON. SHOULD HAVE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A COUPLE EMBEDDED
STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE REACHED
EARLY IN THE MORNING MON FOLLOWED BY FALLING READINGS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. LOCATIONS GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST SHOULD
SEE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS - ESP IF A SFC LOW ENDS UP
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AS GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST. DON'T THINK THERE
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE BUT THERE MIGHT BE SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS S OF I-10. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN & DRIZZLE THRU TUES. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THICK CLOUD COVER WITH LITTLE IF ANY WARM UP ON
TUES...SO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES.
UPPER TROF SWINGS THRU THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO
THE PRECIP FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING ON WED. REST OF THE WORK
WEEK SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL AS HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE NRN
GULF STATES. 47
MARINE...
STILL NO MAJOR ISSUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS VIA THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE NC GULF. HOWEVER AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF AND THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES ON SUN EVEN AS THE SLY WINDS INCREASE...BUT
ALL THIS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE BY MON MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A-
NOTHER COLD FRONT. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST INTO TUES (AT
LEAST). PER LATEST LONG-RANGE MODELS...ONSHORE WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 41
AVIATION...
THE PASSAGE OF ONE DISTURBANCE HAS PRODUCED SOME DZ/-RA OVER THE SRN
HALF OF AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER JUDGING BY THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS/00Z
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF DRY AIR OVER SE TX. THUS WE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTN...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT-
ED TONIGHT AS THE LOW CIGS/PATCHY BR DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO PERSIS-
TENT ONSHORE WINDS/INCREASED MOISTURE. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 61 75 49 49 / 10 10 40 90 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 62 77 52 56 / 20 20 30 80 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 65 74 62 64 / 20 20 20 70 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...46
