FXUS64 KHGX 102344
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
544 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COME INTO THE
PICTURE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW WITH MVFR CEILINGS NEAR 1500 FEET DEVELOPING
AROUND MID MORNING SOUTH OF I-10 AND AROUND MIDDAY NORTH OF I-10. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO IFR LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH RA/SHRA
HELPING TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN RA/SHRA SEEM LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY LASTING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS INLAND AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.  42 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. LOWER CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL
IN LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS STAYING UP OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT COOLING AND KEEP OUR
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

COASTAL LOW STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
THE AREA. MODEL RUNS TODAY ARE A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER IN
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AND MOVING IT TOWARDS THE AREA...SUGGESTING
A SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION TIMING TO MORE OF A FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY EVENT. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR FRIDAY
AND AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT FEEL BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL LIE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING OUT OF POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOWER PROPAGATION OF THE SFC LOW. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM QUICKLY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

NEXT COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH A GRADUAL COOL DOWN ACROSS THE ARE FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL 
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR THE 00-20 NM WATERS AND 
SCEC FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. WILL EXTEND SCA FOR THE 
20-60 NM WATERS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY AND 
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW 
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL PEAK 5-7 FT NEARSHORE...7-10 FT 
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT BY LATE 
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAKER SFC LOW AND A MORE NORTHEAST 
COMPONENT TO THE WIND MEANS TIDES WILL NOT BE AS ELEVATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM AS PREVIOUS ONES. DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING ANY COASTAL FLOOD 
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT. FINALLY A PERIOD OF FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS 
OVER THE WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS AND 
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS.  35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      38  48  42  54  48 /  10  50  70  40  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              39  51  44  56  49 /  20  70  70  40  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            49  55  53  59  57 /  30  70  70  40  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42