FXUS61 KBTV 270314
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1014 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1014 PM EST THURSDAY...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE LED TO
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE AREA AND HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO INCLUDE THIS. STARTING TO SEE STEADIER PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ENHANCES DYNAMIC SUPPORT.
WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
TWEAKED TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST THURSDAY...LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY FRIDAY AS IT
MOVES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION...BUT
THEY DO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW...AND
THE RESULTING DISTRIBUTION OF QPF. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...JET DYNAMICS AND LIFT COMBINED WITH ADVECTION OF DEEP
MSTR INTO THE RGN WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN
FRIDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERE STILL RATHER MILD AT ONSET
TIME OF PCPN...SO EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY RAIN IN LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT AS UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST INTO THE
REGION...EXPECT THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVER HIR
ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT AS PCPN CONTINUES...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
STILL LOOK TOO MILD TO SUPPORT SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. WITH STRONG
UVM LATER FRIDAY PM/EVENING HOWEVER...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN EVEN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS WHEN PCPN IS
HEAVIEST. GFS QPF LOOKS OVERDONE...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF
GFS/NAM/HPC QPF. DURING FRIDAY NIGHT...PCPN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHICS AS FLOW AT ALL LEVELS TURNS NW. EXPECT
HEAVIEST PCPN LATER FRI NITE INTO SAT MORNING TO BE OVER HIR TRRN
OF NRN VT. NO HEADLINES ATTM...BUT CERTAINLY COULD LEAD INTO AT
LEAST AN ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE NRN TIER OF VT ZONES AND WRN
SLOPES...AND PERHAPS THE ADRNDKS...ALTHO QPF AMTS OVER NRN NY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS OVER VT. SNOW/RAIN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SATURDAY...BEING MORE CONFINED TO HIR TRRN.
PCPN DIMINISHES FURTHER SATURDAY NITE AND GRADIENT SLACKENS AS LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY THRU ERN CANADA...AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. AS FOR THE TOTAL QPF WITH THIS EVENT...EXPECT
WDSPRD 1-2 INCH AMTS IN VT...LESS ACRS NRN NY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MANY RIVERS. OTHER CONCERN
WITH THIS EVENT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS LOW
DEEPENS OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND. WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR EVEN HIR PSBL
FRIDAY NITE INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS... LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT. EXPECT HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY BTWN
40-45...LOWS FRI NITE IN L-M 30S..AND HIGHS SATURDAY 35-40.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THEN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR VFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...BUT WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...FOG HAS FORMED AND THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE IN
KSLK WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. OTHERWISE...RAIN
SHIELD WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 09Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RAINFALL SHOULD
INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING...BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR ALL
AREAS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX IN
ABOVE 2000 FEET AFTER 22Z AND THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT KSLK. LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...IFR IN
RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE MTNS. SATURDAY...IFR IN SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE...CHANGING TO SNOW BY
EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS. SUNDAY...BECMG VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS
DIMINISHING. MONDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR EXCEPT MVFR IN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW EVENT
OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE
SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST MEASURABLE
SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST
SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL
TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
5. 11/30/1953 83.6
6. 11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
CLIMATE...NASH
