FXUS61 KGYX 061504
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1004 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
REDEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ALLOW CLEAR CONDS FOR SKIES ACROSS ALL THE
DOWNSLOPING AREAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION;
LOW PRES WILL RACE TO THE NE THIS MORNING QUICKLY REACHING THE
MARITIMES. THIS HAS BROUGHT A QUICK END TO THE SNOW. CLEARING TO
FOLLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNSLOPE AREAS...WHILE THE GUSTY NW
WINDS KEEP CLOUDS AND A SLGT CHC OR CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE MT ZONES
DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND A BLEND OF MAV AND
MET MOS FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED UP TO 7 1/2 INCHES FROM THIS EVENT.
SEVERAL PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS /AWIPS IDENTIFIER
PWMPNSGYX/ HAVE BEEN ISSUED...THE MOST RECENT AT 544 AM...WITH
DETAILED SNOWFALL INFORMATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W TNGT WITH FAIR WX. CLEARING
CONTINUES THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN LATE IN ADVANCE OF UPR
LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT AND WEAK SFC LOW MOVE IN FROM THE W. NW
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH BUILDS IN AND WINDS
DECOUPLE. GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS FOR
TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EVOLVING PATTERN RESULTS IN A DEEP TROUGH VICINITY OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A CLOSED LOW SITUATED JUST WEST OF
HUDSON BAY. THE RESULTING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
ARCTIC AIR TO SEEP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND PLAINS AND
GIVE RISE TO A MAJOR DISTURBANCE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY MID WEEK WITH A TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT THAT FAVORS A WINTRY MIX...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
OTHERWISE...COLD AND RATHER QUIET THIS PERIOD WITH ONLY OTHER
SYSTEM OF NOTE A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...ALL TAF SITES NOW VFR AS -SN HAS
ENDED AT AUG. VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THRU TNGT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN FROM THE W. GUSTY NW WINDS TDA...SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY
SUNSET AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
LONG TERM...MVFR POSSIBLE LATE MON AND MON NIGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS.
IFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SNOW...WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... WILL UPDATE TO DROP SCA IN
THE BAYS AND GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS AT 10 AM. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AS WINDS
CURRENTLY JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
