FXUS64 KHGX 221616
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.UPDATE...
DEFINITELY A DIFFERENT-FEELING DAY OF LATE...MUCH WARMER AND
MILDER UPON THIS STRENGTHENED ONSHORE FLOW. THE SECOND FULL DAY OF
WINTER FEELING MUCH MORE SPRING-LIKE WITH THE MERCURY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 70S. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL KEEP MANY
LOCALES RIGHT AROUND 70F BY MID-DAY UNDER THICK CLOUDS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SOUTH-TO-NORTH MOVING SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TO PICK UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT THURSDAY...HIGHER THREAT
OVER THE EASTERN FA. THE COLD FRONT STILL TIMED TO COME THROUGH
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING...LIKELY POPS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STRONG (MAYBE A SEVERE) STORM(S) WED PM. OF COURSE...THE UP SIDE IS
A VERY WARM AND MILD WED MORN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
DAY OF WEEK IN THE AVERAGE LOWER 70S. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
AVIATION...
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TODAY ON STRENGTHENING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO KEEP CEILINGS ABOVE IFR LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING
VCSH THAT WAS CARRIED IN PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE...BUT CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
WILL BE A LOT BETTER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF
AND ALONG A FAST MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL WATERS JUST OFF COASTAL
BEND AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH. STILL QUITE DRY ABOVE 750 MB THIS
MORNING HOWEVER. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY TIGHTENING UP ACROSS
CWFA WITH PRESSURES ALREADY FALLING OVER FAR NW TX AND NEW MEXICO.
PWATS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF STORM
SYSTEM. WE STAYED CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION WITH MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
INCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL JET PICKING UP TODAY AND
INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
DIFFLUENT WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH HELICITY VALUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. SWODY2
INDICATE SLIGHT RISK SVR FOR OUR REGION (WEDNESDAY). WE STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS ZFPHGX WITH RESPECT TO POPS - LIKELY NE HALF OF REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY AND EASTERN PORTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE RAPID IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY MORNING WEST TO
EAST DUE TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER CAA OVER
OUR REGION DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S AND 50S EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AND TO THE 30S AND 40S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND 50S FRIDAY. IT WILL BE COOL AND DRY ON
CHRISTMAS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF
INDICATE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER TX COASTAL
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN THE
ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. OUR SW REGION MAY GET A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
REST OF CFWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND COOL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY GIVE OUR REGION A
CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE. 37
MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AREA. HAVE HOISTED CAUTION FLAGS FOR ALL WATERS TODAY...
THEN RAISED TO ADVISORY FLAGS FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP CAUTION FLAGS UP FOR THE BAYS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MIGHT
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO ADVISORIES IF WINDS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN EXPECTED. WE COULD BE SEEING NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE SOUTH WINDS
AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND OFFSHORE SEAS IN A 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT RACES OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING (A
LITTLE EARLIER IN THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA). CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY LASTING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS A LITTLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. OFFSHORE
WATER WINDS MIGHT REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 62 71 49 61 / 20 40 50 60 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 63 72 54 62 / 20 40 50 60 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 62 70 58 64 / 20 30 50 60 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
