FXUS61 KOKX 301755
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST...AND
PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH REGARD TO MODEL HANDLING OF NEXT TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT. DO EXPECT COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN TO INCREASE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES AND H3 HPA JET STRENGTHENS...BUT DELAYED A
LITTLE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON CURRENT OBS.
LOOKING FOR 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH QPF ON AVERAGE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. MOS BLEND FOLLOWED WHICH WAS
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS IN DATABASE ANYWAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. CLEARING OCCURS THIS EVENING AS THE SHOWERS DEPART
THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CHILLY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH
SOME 20S INTERIOR.
UPPER LEVEL VORT DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ON BACK SIDE OF THIS
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH ON TUESDAY...WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. COULD SEE A SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POP UP
TUESDAY. PROFILES SHOW PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW...BUT
WILL LET BOUNDARY LAYER DICTATE P-TYPE. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ANYWAY...PREDOMINATELY INTERIOR. TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS WEAK UPPER
TROUGH DEPARTS AND RIDGE BUILDS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...AND WE SHOULD OBSERVE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION COMMENCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SW STATES...WILL IMPACT THE
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
GETS CAUGHT UP IN FAST NORTHERN STREAM FLOW.
GGEM/SREF/NAM/GFS/GEFS AND EC ALL FAVOR INLAND TRACK TO THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE. WILL DISCARD NAM SOLUTION
AS IT LAGS BEHIND ALL OTHER MODELS SOLUTIONS WITH NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. NAM SRN STREAM TROUGH AND SFC LOW FURTHER WEST AND SLOWER
THAN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. GFS COULD BE A TAD FAST WITH THE LOW
THAT MOVES OUT OF GULF AND TRAVERSES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. DO
EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS
CUTS OFF RAIN QUICKLY THURSDAY...BUT WILL SIDE WITH GEFS/SREF AND
SLOW THIS DOWN A TAD.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING
ON THURSDAY (FULL MOON)...BUT MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS AS STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SE SWELL IMPACT THESE SOUTH
FACING LOCALES.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY...COLDER
SATURDAY...THEN TEMPS MODERATE AGAIN SUNDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HOURS
OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN POSSIBILITY OF MVFR IN
ANY MODERATE POST-FRONTAL RAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DO EXPECT LOW END VFR THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WNW WINDS AROUND 10KT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 15-20KT TO GET
STARTED. WINDS VEER TO NW AND LOSE GUSTINESS 21-22Z. WIND GUSTS
RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING (AROUND 2Z) WITH NW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS BACK TO THE WNW/W AND DIMINISH TO
AROUND 10KT DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING PUSH. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT LIKELY STARTING EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MIGHT START OUT AT 18Z SLIGHTLY BELOW AND TO
THE LEFT OF FORECAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY REACH FORECAST DIRECTION
AND SPEED. IT NOW APPEARS WINDS WILL TRANSIT THROUGH 310...MAYBE
FOR AN HOUR OR SO AROUND 21Z ON THE WAY FROM WNW TO NW FLOW...BUT
PREDOMINATELY TO THE RIGHT OF 310 LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TIME GUSTINESS ENDS OVERNIGHT.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
30/17Z 24007KT
30/18Z 28011G17KT
30/19Z 29012G18KT
30/20Z 30011G17KT
30/21Z 31010G15KT
30/22Z 32011KT
30/23Z 32011KT
01/00Z 32011KT
01/01Z 32011KT
01/02Z 33012G19KT
01/03Z 33013G21KT
KJFK...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TIME GUSTINESS ENDS
OVERNIGHT.
KLGA...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TIME GUSTINESS ENDS
OVERNIGHT.
KTEB...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MIGHT START OUT AT 18Z SLIGHTLY BELOW AND TO
THE LEFT OF FORECAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY REACH FORECAST DIRECTION
AND SPEED. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TIME GUSTINESS ENDS OVERNIGHT.
KHPN...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MIGHT START OUT AT 18Z SLIGHTLY BELOW AND TO
THE LEFT OF FORECAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY REACH FORECAST DIRECTION
AND SPEED. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TIME GUSTINESS ENDS OVERNIGHT.
KSWF...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TIME GUSTINESS ENDS
OVERNIGHT.
KISP...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TIME GUSTINESS ENDS
OVERNIGHT.
KBDR...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MIGHT START OUT AT 18Z SLIGHTLY BELOW AND TO
THE LEFT OF FORECAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY REACH FORECAST DIRECTION
AND SPEED. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TIME GUSTINESS ENDS OVERNIGHT.
KGON...UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS FOR CEILING HEIGHT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT TIME GUSTINESS ENDS
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY...VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH LLWS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS...DIMINISHING
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR LIKELY...CHANCE SUB-VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE ALREADY REACHED SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN...AND EXPECT
GUSTS TO FOLLOW SUIT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. PRETTY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY ON THE OCEAN AND EASTERN LI SOUND/BAYS. REMAINING WATERS
SHOULD FALL SHORT. HAVE KEPT HEADLINES AS IS.
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT TONIGHT AND THERE COULD BE GUSTS REACHING
25 KT AT TIMES. WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT THERE WILL BE
FREQUENT GUSTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE RIGHT AROUND 5 FT THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS WELL SO SCA WILL BE EXTENDED HERE.
CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRES LIFTS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. GALES ARE
A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY INTO THU...BUT STILL TO EARLY FOR A GALE
WATCH. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE IN HWO.
ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE OCEAN SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
THU...BUT WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1-2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON WILL KEEP ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HIGH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO THE WEST COULD CAUSE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR RIGHT
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...BUT DUE TO THE FAIRLY QUICK
PROGRESSION OF THE STORM...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND
DECREASE BY THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS IN THE
MORNING...2 TO 2 1/2 IN THE EVENING.
THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE SYSTEM...HENCE STRONGER WINDS
AND LARGER DEPARTURES IN THE STORM SURGE GUIDANCE. HAVE GONE MORE
OF AN EC/SREF ROUTE FOR NOW SO NOT TAKING THE GUIDANCE VERBATIM.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...BC/PW
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...BG/AL
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AL
