FXUS62 KCAE 011129
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY...ENSURING FAIR WEATHER. RAIN WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO POSSIBLE...UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING OFFSHORE. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. MODELS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STREAM IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE TODAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO/TEXAS REGION WILL PUSH EAST. UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES AHEAD OF
IT IN A SW UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE WESTERN GULF TODAY...PUSHING NE TOWARDS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OR NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TYPE FEATURE WILL APPROACH OUR FA WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO OUR FA FROM THE SW LATE
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD BE REACHED EARLY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BY LATE
TONIGHT...CLOUD BASES WILL BE LOWERING AND WIND WILL BE INCREASING
WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE SOME...THOUGH THAT
COULD BE TEMPERED LATE BY RAINFALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM FRONT TYPE FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW REMAINING TO OUR WEST...AND WITHOUT A
STRONG PARENT HIGH TO OUR NE...ANY IN SITU WEDGE THAT COULD DEVELOP
SHOULD BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED FOR OUR FA. IT APPEARS THAT OUR FA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK TO MODERATE...MORE UNSTABLE
NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...A STRONG 850MB JET AROUND 60 KNOTS
EXPECTED...WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
INDICATED. SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR FA. HOWEVER...THIS IS GENERALLY A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR
FA. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE UPPER
FLOW TO REMAIN SW...WHICH WOULD NOT ALLOW THE FRONT TO GET A GOOD
PUSH. IT APPEARS IT MAY STALL OFFSHORE...WITH SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING IN THU/FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL RUNS ALL SEEM TO SUGGEST A LOW
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN VARYING DEGREES
SATURDAY AND MOVING NE...WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING TO
OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER...LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH ANY
MOISTURE COULD TRANSLATE TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR OUR REGION. AT
THIS TIME...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF BRING IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR SUN/MON...BUT
REDEVELOPS A SW UPPER FLOW WHICH PROVIDES FOR UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING AFTER
02/05Z. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE TAF
SITES AFTER 02/05Z. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING
EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 06Z. MAY SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS
TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE COAST COULD BRING RESTRICTED
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
