FXUS64 KFWD 090509 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA TO DECATUR TO BRECKENRIDGE. SITES 30 MILES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ARE SEEING THE WINDS BRIEFLY CHANGE TO THE WEST AHEAD
OF THE WIND SHIFT. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE 16G2KT IN THE TAFS UNTIL 9Z OR
3AM. THERE IS A THIN BAND OF LOW CLOUDS THAT IS MOVING CLOSER TO
THE METROPLEX AND THINK THIS FEATURE AND CIGS WILL BRIEFLY GO
MVFR IN THE METROPLEX BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS RESTRICTION WILL ONLY
LAST 1-2 HOURS AT MOST BEFORE MOVING OUT. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE VALID PERIOD...AND SOME PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR WACO...CONDITIONS THERE THIS EVENING PROBLEMATIC. WACO HAS
REMAINED ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPING AND RISING OUT OF IFR/MVFR/VFR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
TAKE CARE OF THIS PROBLEM WHEN IT REACHES THE AIRPORT AT AROUND 8Z
OR 2 AM. THE SAME WIND AND CLOUD TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT WACO AS IN
THE METROPLEX FOR TOMORROW.
85/NH
&&
.UPDATE...
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE. LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST LOCATIONS
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM. THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO ONLY BE 30 MINUTES TO AN HOUR
AHEAD OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO IN GENERAL FEEL THAT LOWS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS GO GUST
TO 35 TO 40 MPH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE SETTLING BACK DOWN INTO
THE SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 RANGE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE THE MORNING
HOURS QUITE BRISK ACRS NORTH TX...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS FALLING
INTO THE LOWER TEENS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AROUND THE METROPLEX.
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS PREVIOUS
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
POWERFUL WINTER STORM EXITING THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STRONG SUBSIDENT
WESTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE HELPED TO ERODE SHALLOW
COLD AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CLEARING
LINE IS NOW ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. LATE AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRAVITY
WAVES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS...ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AREAWIDE WITH THE FRONT
WHICH WILL ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY
EARLY MORNING. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND DO NOT EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
SO WILL SEE A COLD DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH
THE SLIGHTLY COLDER MET MOS NUMBERS FOR WED NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS LATE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
NONETHELESS IT WILL STILL BE A COLD NIGHT.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AFTER
TODAYS SYSTEM...BUT A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RETURN MOISTURE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. AS OF NOW...TEMPS
APPEAR THAT THEY WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO PREVENT ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH 12Z ECMWF NOW
COLDER AND FASTER WITH COLD FRONT...ARRIVING EARLY MONDAY. WILL
TREND FORECAST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN BEHIND COLD FRONT MON/TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 25 40 23 46 35 / 5 0 0 5 10
WACO, TX 31 45 24 50 35 / 5 0 0 5 10
PARIS, TX 25 37 20 44 33 / 5 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 23 38 19 43 33 / 5 0 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 25 39 20 44 33 / 5 0 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 28 41 25 47 37 / 5 0 0 5 10
TERRELL, TX 29 41 22 48 37 / 5 0 0 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 32 45 25 49 37 / 5 0 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 33 46 26 52 37 / 5 0 0 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/69
