FXUS61 KGYX 230222
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
922 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BACK INTO NORTHERN MAINE
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF MAINE AND FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATE TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
RELATIVELY QUIET OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL SET UP AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A BIT OF A WARMUP.
ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BUSY NIGHT ON THE SHORT TERM DESK. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
VERMONT WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAINE...ALLOW BANDS OF SNOW TO PERSIST MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF MAINE. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...I
RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN SOMERSET COUNTIES TO
THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY. I ALSO ADJUSTED
AMOUNTS IN FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS NORTHERN OXFORD
COUNTY TO REFLECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. IN
ADDITION...REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS INDICATED PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS OCCURRING IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. I RAISED POPS OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS AS WELL. ALL 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE MESONET.
PREV DISC...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING THE QPF AXIS
FURTHER NORTH OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WINTER STORM
WARNING IN PLACE AS THE VERY NORTHERN EDGE OF IT COULD SEE SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW. AREAS THAT WERE UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL
BE DROPPED COMPLETELY. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CONDITIONS
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP SET UP SOME UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. 5H LOW MOVE SE ON OFF
THE MAINE COAST WED NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS THE BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL
BE FORMING OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE TO MOVE SOUTH AND OFF
THE COAST.
HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM CANADA FOR THUR AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS DAY.
A COMPLICATED MESS ARRIVES SAT AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK OUT IN SW NH SAT MORN. MODELS
SHOWING NE PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW AS 1040 HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO
GIVE GROUND. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EVERYWHERE
BUT EXPECT COASTAL LOCATIONS TO TURN FAIRLY QUICKLY TO RAIN SAT. IN
THE INTERIOR EXPECT A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW IN THE
MTNS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE INTERIOR
ESPECIALLY THE VALLEY LOCATIONS SO SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS PSBL.
SYSTEM MOVES OUT SUN. MON AND TUES EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER
LVL LOW MOVING OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STEADIER SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH OF AUGUSTA.
LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THRU SAT MORN.
MVFR MOVES IN SAT WITH IFR SAT NGT AND SUN MORN.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN REISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE
ELIZABETH. WINDS PICKED UP SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING AND I
EXPECT SMALL CRAFT WINDS...AS WELL AS SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT...
TO PERSIST FOR THE AREA FROM THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO JUST SOUTH OF
CAPE ELIZABETH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA PSBL WED NGT AND THU AM AS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE.
THUR AFTN THRU SAT AM WINDS BLO SCA CRITERIA. SAT AFTN AHEAD OF
FRONT WINDS INCREASE FROM E AND SE MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA. &&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ009.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ008-
013-014.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ009.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ154.
&&
$$
