FXUS64 KCRP 271146
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
546 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A MID/UPR
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. PATCHY LIGHT SPRINKLES
OR VIRGA ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF EPISODE BETWEEN 10-12Z SATURDAY NEAR KALI DUE
TOO LIGHT FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
SHORT TERM...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS A NEG TILT
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM MX. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS
OUR CWA FROM W-E TODAY PRODUCING ONLY SPRINKLES AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE 305-315K LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER OBSERATIONS FROM MX
DID INDICATE LIGHT PCPN AT A FEW LOCATIONS AS THE TROUGH PASSED.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
DEEPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW. DWPTS WILL RISE THIS
AFTN AS AN ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT IN THE WAKE
OF THE EXITING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER
INLAND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. WINDS PICK UP ON SAT AS A 548DM
LOW MOVES INTO SRN ARIZONA AND SFC LOW DEEPENS IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MOD/STRONG LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A WEAK MID
LVL S/W WILL RESULT IN M/C SKIES AND A VERY SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND. HOWEVER A DECENT CAP AT 800MB
SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP SATURDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEG WARMER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL CONSENSUS IS
SLOWING UPPER TROUGH SLOWING DOWN...WHICH IN SOME WAYS MAKES SENSE
SINCE CUT OFF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SLOWER. HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES
FROM THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS ARE NOT DRAMATIC...ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO.
THUS...WILL EXTEND RAIN FORECAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT NOW MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN SECTIONS...SOMEWHAT FOLLOWING THE 00Z ECMWF AS THINK THE
GFS MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST. WITH SLOWER UPPER SUPPORT...WILL GO WITH
ONLY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MAINLY OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND NORTHEAST AS UPPER SUPPORT DELAYED AND FIRST UPPER WAVE
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT DOWN ON
MONDAY...NOW EVEN A BIT FASTER...LIKELY GOING THROUGH KCRP AROUND
12Z. WITH TIMING THE WAY IT IS NOW...WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SHOWERS
BUT CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDER AS SOME ENERGY AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH MAY BE AVAILABLE BY THEN. HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT...AND EXPECT RAIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER FROPA
ON MONDAY. EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT CLIMBING MUCH MONDAY IF AT ALL GIVEN RAIN PROXIMATE
AND CLOUD COVER (SO COOL BREEZY AND CLAMMY ON MONDAY). MAINTAINED AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT BUT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
BEST SHOT FOR RAIN FOR IS ON TUESDAY WITH MAIN TROUGH...LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS TROUGH IS QUITE COLD AND THERE COULD
BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME THUNDER. AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY GIVEN STRONG TROUGH...WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR
THE COAST. KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY EVENING
BEFORE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AND ENDS THE RAIN CHANCES. WEDNESDAY
LOOKS TO BE COOL AND DRY WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING. SOME QUESTION
ABOUT THURSDAY AS GFS TRIES TO SWING A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA (WOULD
ONLY MEAN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ON THURSDAY) WHILE ECMWF TRIES TO
BRING ANOTHER BOUNDARY DOWN. FOR NOW...STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT
IF ECMWF SOLUTION IS CLOSER...WILL NOT HAVE A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR
THURSDAY BUT WILL BE COOLER ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL MOS TREND HAS BEEN
TO BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT SO MAINTAINED THE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
FORECAST AFTER FROPA MONDAY. BEFORE THE FRONT ON MONDAY...NUMBERS
NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 67 56 77 65 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 69 52 74 62 78 / 10 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 70 56 78 63 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 68 54 79 62 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 66 58 73 67 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 67 53 77 59 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 68 54 78 63 82 / 10 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 67 58 74 68 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
JM/75...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM
