FXUS62 KMFL 120855
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2009
...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF COAST
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THE CWA.
SO THE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SLOWLY CLEARING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER
THE CWA. THE POPS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END CHANCE CAT EAST COAST
AREAS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE CAT WEST COAST AREAS TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE TODAY ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME SOUTHERLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL WORK
NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM CUBA. SO THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR
FOG FORMATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO WORK INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE CWA FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LATE NIGHT
FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS EACH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING UP FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE CWA WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS ON SUNDAY.
MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER THE CWA LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT
SHOULD END PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE GOING NORTHWESTERLY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND. SO WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK OVER ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS IN THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS...WITH AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. FOR THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SWINGING TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION AND TAPERING DOWN TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN ALL OF THE
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY WATERS WHERE THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF THE
WATERS...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY FOR THIS
EVENING.
THE SEAS WILL BE 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING DOWN TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND LESS THAN 4 FEET TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF WATER SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS
TODAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS FOR THIS MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING THE SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BISCAYNE BAY WATERS WILL ALSO BE
UPGRADED FROM THE SCEC TO A SCA FOR TODAY...DUE TO THE WINDS OF 20
KNOTS. THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS
WILL REMAIN IN A SCEC FOR TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THIS WEEKEND. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER THE
CWA...BUT WILL BE WARMING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WHICH ARE:
CITIES FORECAST HIGHS RECORD HIGHS
MIAMI 87 89 - 1900
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 87 - 1922
WEST PALM BEACH 86 87 - 1941
MIAMI BEACH 85 85 - 1941
NAPLES 85 88 - 1972
IMMOKALEE 88 86 - 1972
LA BELLE 89 89 - 1993
DEVILS GARDEN 89 89 - 1961
CLEWISTON 88 89 - 1961
BELLES GLADES 89 89 - 2000
SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
ON MONDAY THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WHICH COULD ALSO GET
CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGHS FOR FORT LAUDERDALE WHICH IS 86, 1922,
MIAMI WHICH IS 86, 1900, AND MIAMI BEACH WHICH IS 82, 2007.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 74 86 72 / 50 30 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 76 86 74 / 50 30 10 10
MIAMI 82 75 87 73 / 50 30 10 10
NAPLES 85 69 85 68 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-
AMZ670-AMZ671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR
