FXUS63 KGLD 292123
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
221 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

1730Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CUT OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA 
WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THE 
SFC...RIDGE WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS COLD FRONT WAS MOVING 
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. 

TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE 
TO DIVE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS 
WAKE. WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...EXPECT 
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RIDGE 
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS BAJA CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT INTO SOUTHERN 
PLAINS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. WITH 
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER AIR 
IN PLACE TONIGHT...THINK GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE TOO WARM OVERNIGHT AS 
THEY ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO LAST NIGHT. WHILE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW 
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM TOTALLY BOTTOMING OUT...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO 
BE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. MAJORITY OF SHORT RANGE MODELS 
FAVOR A DECENT WARM UP TOMORROW WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 
60S. MIXED LAYER FIELDS SUPPORT UPPER 50S...BUT WITH FULL SUN 
ATMOSPHERE HAS MIXED MUCH DEEPER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO GOING A 
LITTLE WARMER PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...H5 RIDGE COMPLETELY BREAKS DOWN AS BAJA CALIFORNIA CLOSED 
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL FORCE 
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A 
TRANSIENT PERIOD OF ASCENT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND 
THE SFC FRONT...POSITION OF CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL EFFECTIVELY 
LIMIT ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH 
MOISTURE VERY LIMITED...LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES IF 
ANYTHING THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. OF COURSE IF SOUTHERN LOW WERE TO 
SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW...BUT 
THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA. TEMPERATURES WILL 
ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC AS FROPA EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
WHILE UNCERTAINTY FAIRLY HIGH IN THE NORTHERN CWA...THINK ANOTHER 
WARM DAY IN STORE FOR THE SOUTH WHERE FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY REACH 
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. COOLER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON 
WEDNESDAY AND WHILE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUSLY 
EXPECTED...MIXED LAYER TEMPS OFF OF NAM/GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY 
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 30S...MAYBE NEARING LOWER 40S IN A FEW SPOTS. 

IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE QUICKLY WITH THE 
EXPECTED PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE 
DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE SIGNIFICANT WITH ECMWF DEPICTING A LARGE H5 
RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND GFS DEPICTING A STRONG TROUGH. GFS AND 
CANADIAN HAVE DECENT SUPPORT FROM INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS DEPICTING THE ECMWF 
PATTERN. 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO BE JUST THE OPPOSITE WITH 
MORE MEMBERS FAVORING THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...WITH SOME MEMBERS IN 
THE GFS CAMP.  THIS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS MAKES CONFIDENCE FAIRLY 
LOW...BUT WILL LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS/CAN AS THERE IS 
SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPORT FOR THAT SOLUTION.

WITH SUCH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...GENERALLY KEPT CHANGES 
SMALL AND TOOK MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TYPE SOLUTION FOR TEMPS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JRM

&&

.AVIATION...
221 PM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$