FXUS62 KTBW 260200
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA WITH SOME COOLER DRIER
AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION. AS IS TYPICAL WITH EL NINO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
FAST FLOW ALOFT AND THIS WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
EFFECT SHOULD BE JUST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. OVERALL THE CURRENT
GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK GOOD AND NO EVENING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER FMY
AND RSW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD DECKS ABOVE 15K
FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO COME DOWN.
IN FACT IF WAVE MODEL FORECAST IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE
7 FOOT SEAS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MARINE FORECAST AS IS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE EVENING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  52  65  51  70 /  10  10  20  20 
FMY  57  70  53  72 /  10  10  20  20 
GIF  50  67  47  70 /  10  10  20  20 
SRQ  51  66  51  71 /  10  10  20  20 
BKV  43  63  38  66 /  10  10  20  20 
SPG  55  65  53  68 /  10  10  20  20 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES