FXAK68 PAFC 032127
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1223 PM AKST THU DEC 3 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...FOCUS FOR NEXT 4 DAYS IS ON THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA AS A SERIES OF VERY POWERFUL STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS AND NAM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST ALEUTIAN
SYSTEM WHICH WILL START TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH FRI NIGHT MODELS IN STEP ON POSITION AND
DEPTH 
BUT ON SAT THE NAM DEEPENS ANOTHER 8 MB OVER THE GFS AS MAIN CENTER
LIES IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. WOULD TEND TO GO WITH GFS SOLUTION. 
YET ANOTHER POWERFUL LOW (940'S) MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SAT
NIGHT BUT STALLS NEAR 50N 170W SUN AND MON.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN HIGH AMPLITUDE SE TO NW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH MON.  THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS
MOVE UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INSTEAD OF MOVING EASTWARD. 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR ON FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AK PEN CAN EXPECT VERY
STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF PRECIP...SHOULD START OFF AS SNOW THU
NIGHT AND FRI MORNING BUT CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY.
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AK PEN WITH
CONSIDERABLE UPSLOPE FLOW.  BY FRI NIGHT FRONT IS OVER KODIAK ISLAND
BRING VERY STRONG WINDS AND RAIN.  WOULD EXPECT SOME LOCALIZED HIGH
WATER PROBLEMS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MELT ALONG
THE AK PEN AND POSSIBLY KODIAK IS. ALSO EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKO DELTA FRI NIGHT...WINDY WITH SNOW MIXED
WITH RAIN ON SAT IN COASTAL LOCALES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...SECOND MAJOR SYSTEM ON SUN WILL ONCE AGAIN
GENERATE VERY STRONG WINDS AND PRECIP FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
EASTWARD TO KODIAK ISLAND. AT THE CURRENT TIME THIS WOULD APPEAR TO
BE A REPEAT OF THE FIRST STORM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS: 187 185 181  HIGH SURF: 181 171
MARINE...STRMS AND GALES IN ALL WEST ZONES
FIRE WEATHER...NOT AND ISSUE AT PRESENT

JMP DEC 09