FXUS64 KOUN 281625
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THIS POINT FOR TODAYS GRIDS. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
VERY MILD AND BREEZY DAY IN STORE... INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP HUMIDITIES HIGHER PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX
HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTN. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE...MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY
ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TERMINALS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 00Z AND PROGRESS
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...COMING CLOSE TO
KPNC/KOKC/KSPS TERMINALS TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF
FRONT...PRIMARILY MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS WILL BE FORECAST AS
MOISTURE RETURNS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD AND BREEZY DAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER WITH THE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED WILDFIRE POTENTIAL PRIMARILY
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAKENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON...WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA WHEN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES
APPROACH THEIR THRESHOLDS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. ENOUGH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS TO KEEP RH VALUES JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT
LATE TONIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOME DRIZZLE OR WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL FORECASTS OF POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. GFS
AND ECM MOST AGGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. WE WILL MAINTAIN GFS-
INITIALIZED POPS WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD CUTOFF LOW THAT IS PROGD TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN TEXAS TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH POPS WERE EXPANDED AND RAISED SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...WE DID NOT GET AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECM. AT THIS TIME...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL IN
LIQUID FORM.
AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME AS UPPER LOW IS LOSING INFLUENCE OVER
REGION...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SURGE INTO OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH NOT CANADIAN IN ORIGIN...THIS AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE COLDER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
REINFORCING SHOTS OF DRIER/COLDER AIR STILL FORECAST TO ENTER
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS AND AT THIS POINT...WE WILL STICK WITH THE
COLDER ECM WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 70 46 50 32 / 0 10 40 20
HOBART OK 71 41 49 32 / 0 10 50 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 74 49 52 35 / 0 10 40 20
GAGE OK 69 36 50 23 / 0 10 40 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 45 51 30 / 0 10 30 10
DURANT OK 70 53 57 40 / 0 10 50 40
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/11
