FXUS61 KBOX 080128
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
828 PM EST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SEAWARD TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRES FOLLOWING INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. A STRONG STORM WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF PRECIPITATION AND
WIND. COLDER AND BLUSTERY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATH OF
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR CAPE COD THIS EVENING...AS LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZES NEAR CAPE COD. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO PERSIST
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE LOW HEADS OUT TO SEA. INCREASING W/NW
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AROUND CAPE COD.
FARTHER INLAND...RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO IT
IS DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
***NASTY WINTRY WX COMMUTE FORESEEN WED MORNING INTERIOR SNE***
TUE...AN UNEVENTFUL DAY IS IN STORE WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FAIR WX SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE W DURING THE AFTN.
MAX TEMPS WERE DEVELOPED FROM THE 12Z NCEP MOS BUT LOWERED SEVERAL
DEGS WITH THE 12Z RGEM 2M TT AND CHECKED AGAINST OUR WARM BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE.
TUE NIGHT...CONSIDERED WSA FOR CT RVR VALLEY AND ORH HILLS NWWD BUT
ITS A BIT EARLY AND WE SEE NO ONE ELEMENT CONFIDENTLY REACHING
CRITERIA BEFORE THE END OF THIS EVENT LATE WED.
WE SAW THE SLOWER 18Z NAM. WE OPTED FOR THE 12Z UK/EC/GFS BLEND.
TSEC COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT THE START BUT THE INCREASING ELY WIND ON
THE COAST QUICKLY WARMS THE BL AND MELTS ANY BRIEF T TO .2 ACCUMS
NEAREST 3 MI OF THE COAST. ELSEWHERE...TITRATING AMOUNTS UPWARD
INLAND.
IN A NUTSHELL... BY DAYBREAK WED...EXPECTING 0.5 TO 2 INCH AMTS
WIDESPREAD JUST W OF I95.
DID NOT YET PUT IN S+ IN THE GRIDS IN STRONG FGEN IDEAL SNOWGROWTH...
LEAVING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO MORE CONFIDENTLY EXPRESS THE MODEL CUED
AND EXPECTED.
WE FORESEE WIDESPREAD WXA IN THE FUTURE FCSTS BUT JUST A BIT EARLY TO
ISSUE SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE OF ENOUGH SNOW ICE IN NW MA AND OR S NH
TO EVENTUALLY WARRANT A WARNING THO THAT HIGHER THRESHOLD WARNING IS
A LOW PROB ATTM.
MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT ARE BLENDED 12Z MAVMOS WITH 12Z NAM 2M AND 09Z
SREF.
QPF IS 18Z HPC.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND ALONG
THE COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PRIMARY LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN INTO QUEBEC AND
SECONDARY LOW MOVING NE FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE MARITIMES. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION WITH 1-2 INCHES OF QPF POSSIBLE. WITH
DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR...INDICATES A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO
START THE DAY.
THE BEST SNOW GROWTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL
JUST AFTER NOON MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF WORCESTER AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF NEARING WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS IN THE MONADNOCKS.
SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA TO JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE BOSTON/PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR WITH A LOW PROBABILITY
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET. EAST OF THE BOSTON/PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AS AN AREA OF
DEEP WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...SNOW WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY
TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE TRANSITION...BUT VERY LITTLE ICE IS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND A PORTION OF THURSDAY WILL BE
WINDS WITH A STRONG EASTERLY LLJ AND GOOD PRESSURE FALLS. STRONG
WINDS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY ON THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND
ISLANDS AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
EASTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWEST QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AT BOTH BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE
ARE ABOUT NORMAL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ON BOTH THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY
WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ON THE SOUTH COAST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING INTO THE
AREA BRINGING COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO
MAKE WIND CHILLS A BIGGER FACTOR FOR THOSE DAYS. A FEW FLURRIES
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
SUNDAY...BOTH THE 07/00Z ECMWF AND THE 07/12Z GFS INDICATE A STRONG
OCEAN STORM PASSING SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
NEXT STORM TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE
FOCUS ON THE STORM FOR WEDNESDAY...WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES...IF ANY TO
THE SUNDAY TIME PERIOD AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z TUE...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND CAPE COD AS SHOWERS PUSH OFFSHORE. INCREASING W/NW
WINDS KACK OVERNIGHT.
VFR TUE WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO CIGS AOA
15KFT BY END OF DAY.
TUE NIGHT...SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LATE..AFTER 06Z IN DEVELOPING
SNOW WITH SNOW CHANGING TO R OR SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITHIN
2 HRS OF ONSET.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW COAST AND A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FZRA IN THE INTERIOR. GUSTY SFC WINDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR...GUSTY SFC
WINDS CONTINUE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. STRONG W SFC WINDS CONTINUE.
&&
.MARINE...
HEADLINES POSTED VIA MWW AND PLEASE READ REGARDING STORM FORCE
POTENTIAL.
TONIGHT...MARGINAL SCA PTN OF THE SE WATERS AS SEAWARD DEPARTING LOW
PRES ATTEMPTS A FEW HRS OF CRITERIA WIND AND SEA CAA.
TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES.
TUE NIGHT...ELY GALE PROBABLY BEGINS IN THE RI WATERS NEAR DAWN WED.
DESPITE THE GALE NOT BEGINNING TIL AFTER 12Z IN ALL THE OTHER OPEN
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS WE RAN ONE SEGMENT OF GALE TO KEEP THIS SIMPLE.
FUTURE FORECASTS MAY OPT FOR MORE DETAIL AS THEY CONVERT THE WATCH
TO A WARNING.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EASTERLY GALES LIKELY WED...ESPECIALLY E MA COASTAL WATERS AS STRONG
LLJ LIFTS NORTHWARD. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROB OF STORM FORCE WINDS
WED AFTERNOON OVER OUTER WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG GRADIENT AND CAA. WINDS INITIALLY
BECOME SW WED EVENING BEHIND OCCLUSION BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT FINALLY HIT THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH 2009. THE LOW THIS SUNDAY MORNING
WAS 31 DEGREES AT 804 AM. IN 137 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING...THIS IS
THE LONGEST BOSTON HAS EVER WAITED TO GET DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK
DURING THE AUTUMN/WINTER. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS DECEMBER 2ND 1975.
THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO HAVING THE 6TH WARMEST NOVEMBER ON
RECORD...THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LUCK.
ON AVERAGE...THE FIRST FREEZE TYPICALLY OCCURS THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
GLOUCESTER NWR TRANSMITTER IS OFF THE AIR. RTS UNKNOWN.
WE ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. JOHNSTON/PROVIDENCE NWR TRANSMITTER
IS BACK ON THE AIR BUT ON LOW POWER...SOME SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNABLE TO RECEIVE THE SIGNAL. MORE MAINTENANCE WILL BE DONE ON
MONDAY TO RETURN THIS STATION TO FULL POWER. IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE
SEE OUR WEBSITE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/RLG
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...DRAG/RLG
