FXUS63 KICT 272117
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE RAIN CHANCES
ON SUNDAY. OUR THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL ARCTIC OUTBREAK
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT:
A WEAK PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT...SPREADING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE FAR TOO SCANT FOR ANY
POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MILD TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...DUE TO INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE
30S...WITH LOW 40S OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FARTHER NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE ALONG
THE COLD FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TOWARD DAWN...COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S TO LOWER 30S ARE LIKELY.
ADK
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY IN CALIFORNIA DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JET DOES NOT LOOK ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE TO THE WEST OF THIS POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY...ACCORDING TO THE AIRCRAFT DATA. AS A RESULT...IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS WAVE MAY GET CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AFTER IT OCCLUDES
IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE
POTENTIAL VORTICITY (PV) ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PV ANOMALY
WILL HELP CAUSE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SURGE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WE MAY SEE
SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ARE NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE AT THIS
TIME...DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. WE
HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN GOING ON SUNDAY MORNING...BUT I
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT ENDS UP BEING MAINLY SPRINKLES. THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OKLAHOMA AND SLIDE EAST INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT WE SHOULD
WARM UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 50S ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
PUSHES EAST AND ALLOWS FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY:
THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING VERY INTERESTING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE STILL ADVERTISING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A CORRESPONDING ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL
GFS HAS BEEN LEANING TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
STARTING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WE ARE LEANING CLOSEST
TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME WHICH WOULD
FAVOR POLAR AIR MOVING SOUTH OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA INTO THE
AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS QUITE TRICKY AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THESE BOUNDARIES TEND TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE
MODELS PROJECT. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE COLDER AIR POURING IN ON
THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SURGES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THIS COLD DOME WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS MESSY.
WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS POINT...BUT IT CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING. WE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD
SINCE WE ARE FAVORING THE ECMWF DURING THIS PERIOD.
COX
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING LATER
THIS EVENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED
TO PASS THROUGH KRSL BY EARLY-MID MORNING SATURDAY...WITH MODEST
NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
ADK
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 37 64 39 46 / 0 0 0 20
HUTCHINSON 35 62 38 46 / 0 0 0 20
NEWTON 36 63 39 46 / 0 0 0 20
ELDORADO 38 64 40 46 / 0 0 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 38 65 40 47 / 0 0 0 30
RUSSELL 29 58 34 44 / 0 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 31 59 35 45 / 0 0 10 10
SALINA 33 61 37 46 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 35 61 38 46 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 40 66 44 51 / 0 0 10 30
CHANUTE 40 65 43 51 / 0 0 10 30
IOLA 40 65 42 49 / 0 0 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 40 66 44 51 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
