FXUS64 KLZK 120409 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1009 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
.UPDATE...
LOWERED TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOISTURE MAKING A SLOW DECENT
NORTHWARD. THIS HAS HELPED TO KEEP CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED...AND LATEST LZK SOUNDING SHOWED PWATS AT
0.40 INCHES. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION...WITH
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE GULF COAST. PRECIP WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF
SITES...WITH A RAIN/SLEET MIX POSSIBLE EARLY ON. PRECIP WILL BE
ALL LIQUID BY LATE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL START OUT VFR...BUT
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY IFR BY
MID DAY. TAFS ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS ARKANSAS. THIS HAS CUT OFF MUCH OF THE HEATING FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SHORT WAVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM JUST A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS WELL. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SLEET
AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY CHANGING ALL
PRECIPITATION TO LIQUID. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DRY AIR WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH A WARM UP AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ARKANSAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ENSURING ALL RAIN.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FNTL BNDRY WL BE SHIFTING SE OF AR EARLY ON TUE...WITH SOME
LINGERING RAIN CHCS NOTED OVR SERN AR. DRIER AND COLDER CONDS WL
RETURN FOLLOWING FROPA AS HIGH PRES BLDS IN FM THE PLAINS. THE HIGH
WL GRADUALLY WORK EWD AND WEAKEN OVR THE MID SOUTH DURG THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WL SLOLY MODIFY...BUT STILL RMN AT BLW
NORMAL LVLS THRU MOST OF THE PD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 27 39 35 51 / 10 60 40 10
CAMDEN AR 34 42 39 60 / 40 70 30 10
HARRISON AR 27 41 36 54 / 10 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 31 40 37 56 / 30 70 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 31 39 36 54 / 20 70 40 10
MONTICELLO AR 33 42 39 59 / 40 70 60 10
MOUNT IDA AR 31 41 36 57 / 20 60 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 26 40 35 52 / 10 30 30 10
NEWPORT AR 28 39 36 51 / 10 70 60 10
PINE BLUFF AR 32 40 38 57 / 30 70 50 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 31 39 35 54 / 10 40 30 10
SEARCY AR 31 39 36 52 / 10 70 50 10
STUTTGART AR 31 39 38 55 / 20 70 60 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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