FXUS64 KOUN 040838
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE NOW BUILDING OVER EPAC/AK WILL KEEP US IN A COLD 
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. LONGWAVE TROF WILL BE MAINTAINED 
DOWNSTREAM FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO CENTRAL/W CONUS AS SYSTEM NOW 
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS S. BASED ON PROJECTED STRENGTH AND 
AMPLITUDE OF THE EPAC RIDGE... ASSOCIATED COLD INTRUSIONS OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROBABLY WILL BE DESERVING OF MORE RESPECT THAN 
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE GIVING THEM. THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD COLD SIDE 
ON FORECAST TEMPS AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACKS OF THE SURFACE WAVES 
ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCES COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN TROF 
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING SCENARIO 
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE COLD AIR IS APT TO REMAIN MORE RESILIENT 
THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS.  WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS AROUND 
SUNDAY AND HIGHER POPS AROUND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LESS-AMPLIFIED 
UPPER SYSTEM DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY ON THE LATEST ECMWF AND THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE IS PREFERRED... THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT 
WINTER WX EVENT FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA IF THE COLD 
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. WE WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE HWO LATER THIS 
MORNING.

THE MAIN CAVEAT TO THE COLDER SCENARIO IS THAT THE EPAC RIDGE IS 
LIKELY TO BE UNDERCUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN 
KEEPING WITH THE CURRENT WARM-PHASE ENSO PATTERN... AND WOULD 
INDICATE MODERATION OF THE COLD AIR BY LATE NEXT WEEK. WE ARE 
GETTING FAR ENOUGH INTO THE COLD SEASON THAT SYSTEMS IN THE ACTIVE 
STORM TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC STILL COULD ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT COLD 
AIR TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WINTER-TYPE PRECIP IN THE S 
PLAINS GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND.   

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  36  22  45  31 /   0   0   0  10 
HOBART OK         40  22  48  30 /   0   0   0   0 
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  25  53  35 /   0   0   0  10 
GAGE OK           41  17  45  21 /   0   0   0   0 
PONCA CITY OK     38  25  45  28 /   0   0   0  10 
DURANT OK         41  23  51  37 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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