FXUS61 KCLE 160430
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1130 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO OHIO BY 
THURSDAY THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY 
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL BE UPDATING ZONES SHORTLY PRIMARILY TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING
IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES. LAKE EFFECT STARTING TO SPIN DOWN
NOW AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS IS MOVING INTO PA. MUCH DRIER AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS AT/BELOW 10F WORKING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AXIS ALSO HELPING
TO BREAK UP CLOUD SHIELD COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT CERTAIN
THAT WE WILL LOSE THE CLOUD COVER OUT WEST ALTOGETHER
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO START WORKING INTO THE
NON-SNOWBELT AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPS
SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELT...00Z RUNS COMING IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER.

IN THE SNOWBELT...JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
OFF OF THE LAKE TO KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING...BUT FEEL THE
BULK OF THE ACCUMS WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT BUT 
ACCUMULATIONS TO STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN INCH OR SO HERE AND 
THERE IN THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...THUS JUST ENOUGH TO BE A 
NUISANCE. FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED TO BE OVER 
THE LAKE ERIE AREA WHILE A WEAK LOW SHOULD MOVE UP THE OHIO RIVER. 
PATCHY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE 
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLURRIES BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE. TEMPS TO RUN 
BELOW NORMAL AS COLD CANADIAN AIR REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE FLIP FLOPPING...THE ECMWF NOW HAS AN 
INVERTED TROF NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS HAS 
SOME SURFACE RIDGING BUT A NORTHERN LAKE EFFECT FLOW. NONE THE LESS 
A THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER TROF WILL BE 
IN THE AREA...SOME LOCATION DIFFERENCES BUT THE THREAT OF SNOW 
SHOWERS LOOKS REASONABLE AND THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE 850 MB 
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME NE OH AND NW
PA EAST OF CLEVELAND...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. HIGH
PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST. AS A RESULT THE MVFR CONDITIONS WEST OF CLEVELAND SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. WILL PRODUCE MAINLY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT
EAST OF CLEVELAND.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BEGIN BUILDING 
OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT OVER LAKE 
BETWEEN APPROACHING HIGH AND DEPARTED LOW PRESSURE FROM THE AREA 
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO CONTINUE 15-25KT OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH BUILDING 
OVERHEAD. WITH THAT...WILL BE CONTINUING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK HIGH PRESSURE 
INFLUENCE WILL ALLOW FOR QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BEGINNING FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ASTIFAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ABE