FXUS61 KGYX 260214
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
914 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
MID ATLANTIC STORM ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY AND THUS WILL HAVE AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. ALONG WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE COAST. FOR NOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS MAIN AREA OF FORCING APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL CHANGE SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN
AND THEN RAIN. AREAS FURTHER INLAND AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL
BE MUCH LESS LIKELY TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING...AND THUS FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE IN THOSE AREAS. BUT OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTERESTING SETUP SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION...IN
COMBINATION WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALLOWS FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
AT THE ONSET...THERE MAY BE THE REMAINS OF A COASTAL FRONT...WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...EVEN TO THE COASTLINE. IN
FACT...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF MET AND THE "TOO COLD" MAV
SOLUTION. DID NOT USE DIURNAL TOOL FOR THIS SOLUTION AS TEMPS
LIKELY TO SLOW RISE DURING THE NIGHT.
ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAINING AS MOSTLY SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A LIGHT MIX IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THIS COULD BE AN ADVISORY
TYPE SITUATION THAT LATER MODEL RUNS AND SURFACE/UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS WILL BETTER DEFINE LATER TONIGHT.
WITH MODEST MIXING...PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE FOR OF RAIN...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HOLDOUTS OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR NORTHERN MTNS IN SOMERSET COUNTY.
MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE GFS SUGGESTS QUICK MOVING
SURFACE WAVE RIDES JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND TIGHT GRADIENT OF WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW BACKS TO THE COASTLINE.
BACK TO THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED SQUALL WITH THIS STRONG FRONT.
QUIET THEREAFTER...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME DISORGANIZED
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LARGE DECK OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
BY SATURDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AT NEW HAMPSHIRE
AIRPORTS...LIKELY AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OCCURRING THROUGH THE MORNING CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM...IFR AND LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION (MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST) SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SOUTH ON MONDAY IN A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. STRONG NW WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH A POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALL
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25KT ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE HAZARDS.
LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT. NEXT
BIG SHOT OF GRADIENT WINDS ARRIVES TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
