FXUS61 KCLE 011612
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1112 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
AND MOVE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL CROSS OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION PROGGED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON SO THE REMAINING
CLOUDS SHOULD THIN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LAST OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS WILL
DISSIPATE BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERIE COUNTY PA. SOME OF THE MESO/LOCAL MODELS
SHOW THE BAND SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ERIE COUNTY BUT I HAVE
A FEELING IT WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE IN PLACE. WIND WILL BE
SOMEWHAT GUSTY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT "BREEZY" EXCEPT ALONG THE
EAST LAKESHORE. TEMPS WILL PUSH 50F ACROSS NW OHIO BUT DID NOT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TOMORROW
MOVING INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL
BEGIN ARRIVING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING NE OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. PREFERRED TRACK OF THE STORM CLOSE TO A TO A COMPROMISE
OF OPERATION GFS AND NAM. THIS SOLUTION KEEPS THE PRECIP RAIN/RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED
TOWARD MORNING OVER WESTERN OHIO. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK/LAKE ONTARIO AREA THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERN
AREAS WILL STILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH FAR
WESTERN AREAS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON. TAPERED POPS OFF TO CHANCE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAKE OVER WITH
A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 8H TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH THAT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THURS DY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG
SYSTEMS AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE WEAK SYSTEMS THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST...AT
LEAST FOR A WHILE...OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WOULD BE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE AND
THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND ACROSS NW PENNSYLVANIA. ECMWF
APPEARS TO DEEPEN AN EAST COAST SYSTEM TOO MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND AND
HANGS ONTO THE COLDEST AIR AND THE UPPER TROUGH ABOUT A DAY TOO
LONG. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS THE LAST TRAILING SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. ECMWF
A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...MOVING IT INTO THE AREA
MONDAY VICE TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST OF AN LORAIN TO WOOSTER LINE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A LITTLE SNOW STILL CONTINUING
NW PA...BUT THAT WILL END BY MID MORNING. EXPECT SKIES OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TO CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE WINDS WILL BEGIN SLACKENING BY MID
MORNING.
.OUTLOOK...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW STILL IN
DOUBT. EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW EARLY THURSDAY.
THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A PREDOMINATELY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE...SO EXPECT MOST SNOW TO BE CONFINED
TO SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY MID MORNING. RIGHT NOW WATER
LEVELS ON THE WESTERN BASIN ARE HOVERING AT THE CRITICAL MARK FOR
SAFE NAVIGATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY FORM LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE COMING CLOSER...BUT STILL NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL HIT LAKE ERIE THURSDAY. THE NAM MOVES THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ERIE...THE GFS ACROSS KY INTO EASTERN NY STATE. THE MODEL OF
CHOICE CONTINUES TO BE THE ECMWF WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS. CURRENTLY HAVE THE WIND GOING TO 30S KNOTS...BUT GALES ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IN ADDITION
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKE AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
MINUS 12 C BY 12Z FRIDAY. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT THE WINDS
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL BE FROM THE WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST AS A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
