FXUS61 KCAR 101935
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
235 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY THROUGH THE MARITIMES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY THEN SLIDE 
TO THE EAST SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW AFFECTS OUR AREA. A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL THAT COULD REDUCE VSBY AND PRODUCE A QUICK
HALF INCH OF SNOW. INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN VERY
COLD GUSTY WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, COMBINATION OF WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAY
PRODUCE ADVISORY WIND CHILLS ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS (ZONES 1,3
AND 4) BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTH BUT DOWNGLIDE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
ACROSS DOWNEAST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ON SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INCREASE CLOUDS FROM WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM AGAIN BOTTOMING OUT.
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE STATE SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE CRESTS THE
REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRAG A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
AMBIENT ATMOSPHERE HOWEVER IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW BY 18Z TUESDAY. GFS AND
CURRENT GEM PROG THE LOW TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE WHILE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL
MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNT. WILL USE
A BLEND OF THE GFS...GMOS...AND ECMWF FOR NOW WHICH YIELDS MOSTLY
SNOW FOR THE CWA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS AGREE
THAT THE LOW WILL SLOW AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP AGAIN
TO BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS LATE PERIOD AS WELL. WILL INITIATE
GRIDS WITH GMOS AND ADJUST TOWARDS THE GFS AND ECMWF BLEND.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
AT TIMES...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR COLD
GUSTY WEST WINDS. SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/FOSTER