FXUS64 KTSA 221717
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1117 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
LOW STRATUS DECK HAS SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ALL
TAF LOCATIONS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AFTER 00Z WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN REDUCING VSBYS BELOW 3 MILES. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE A SHALLOW CANADIAN AIRMASS LURKING NORTH OF THE KANSAS
BORDER DID MAKE A SMALL PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE HELD AT BAY THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. OVERALL FIRST
PERIOD FORECAST IS ON GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AREAS. WEAK RADAR ECHOES PRESENT NEAR THE RED RIVER BUT AS OF YET
NO SFC REPORTS OF RAIN. TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF TULSA AREA AND PARTS OF SE OKLAHOMA BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS.
12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE GOOD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FOR SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL THURSDAY THEY HAVE SHIFTED THE LOW TRACK BACK A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST THIS RUN AND INDICATE A SECONDARY WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BY WHICH TIME THE THERMAL PROFILE
SUGGESTS MAINLY SNOW. THIS FAVORS FAR NORTHEASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW...
OF COURSE THIS WILL ALL BE LOOKED AT MUCH CLOSER AND FURTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK ARE STILL LIKELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 56 52 64 43 / 10 80 80 100
FSM 57 51 64 50 / 20 90 90 100
MLC 58 55 66 46 / 10 60 60 90
BVO 54 47 63 41 / 10 80 80 90
FYV 55 50 60 48 / 10 80 90 100
BYV 54 47 59 49 / 20 90 90 90
MKO 57 51 64 45 / 10 80 70 100
MIO 58 49 63 45 / 10 80 90 100
F10 56 53 66 44 / 10 70 60 90
HHW 60 57 66 47 / 20 60 70 90
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...14
