FXUS64 KSHV 230400
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE WIDE RANGING OVER THE CWA WITH STILL A 5 TO 10 DEGREE T/TD
SPREADS IN RAIN FREE AREAS THUS FAR. CONSIDERING THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...IT SEEMS THAT DEW POINTS WILL RISE AND NEW RAIN AREAS WILL
QUICKLY SATURATE THE AIR...KEEPING LOWS ON TRACK FOR MID TO UPPER
50S. SOME AREAS WILL SEE THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AS RAINFALL NARROWS THE HIGHER SPREADS. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE IS
GOING TO KEEP THE OVERRUNNING IN HIGH PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT...WITH
HPC QPF IS REALLY UNCHAINED FROM PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FORECAST. LOOK
FOR TEMPS TO SATURATE AND EVEN CREEP UP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MEANWHILE...THE VORTS ARE LINING UP AND SFC FRONT STILL LOOKS TO
COME IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED. THE LEAD IS OVER W CEN
TEX...FOLLOWED BY THE 2ND OVER AZ AND THE THIRD IN THIS SERIES
FOLDING MOISTURE OVER W NV. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST OTHER THAN
TIMING OF THE OVERNIGHT LOW. ALL ELSE IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASING ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO YIELD THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY S/E OF A KLFK-KELD LINE. FLIGHT CATEGORIES
SHOULD OTHERWISE DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS /POSSIBLY LOWER/ EXPECTED AT MANY TERMINALS BY 23/1200
UTC. A FEW TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 23/1200 UTC AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GUSTY S/SE WINDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS. OVERNIGHT.
LOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. TSRA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 23/2100 UTC ACROSS E
TX...THEN GRADUALLY MOVE N/E. A SQUALL LINE OF TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP
AFTER 24/0000 UTC...REACHING S AR AND NW LA TERMINALS BETWEEN
24/0900-1200 UTC. GUSTY S/SE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE W/NW AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY
MORNING. /D. BUTTS/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 56 68 52 57 32 / 80 90 100 70 20
MLU 55 65 58 58 34 / 80 90 100 80 20
DEQ 57 64 48 50 27 / 80 90 100 70 20
TXK 57 66 51 56 31 / 80 90 100 70 20
ELD 54 64 54 59 32 / 80 90 100 80 20
TYR 61 68 46 53 30 / 80 90 100 50 10
GGG 60 68 49 56 30 / 80 90 100 50 10
LFK 59 69 51 58 32 / 80 90 100 50 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/21
