FXUS64 KLIX 252124
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
324 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORTEX PARKED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH...A
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. ONE
SUCH IMPULSE WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN PULL TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE TIME FRAME FOR MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY
SHORT...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL FIRST RETURN
ALOFT...AS A WEDGE OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS LINGERS IN THE
LOW LEVELS. WITH THIS LIMITED MOISTURE IN MIND...HAVE ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 AND ISOLATED POPS TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...
ONCE AGAIN...ANOTHER SERIES OF GULF LOWS...MUCH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE ALL SEASON LONG WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEW YEAR. THE FIRST GULF LOW WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A REGION OF ENHANCED
BAROCLINICITY...AS THE OVERALL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE DIFLUENT.
THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...AND IMPACT THE AREA
NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...NO ISSUES EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THERE WILL BE THIN CIRRUS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE AND THIS HAS CAUSED WINDS TO FINALLY
RELAX THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVN AND
OVERNIGHT HRS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VRB OR VEER AROUND TO THE
N AND THEN E BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. AS THE GULF LOW BEGINS TO FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW WILL BRING EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF THE GULF LOW TAKE HOLD. WINDS WILL THEN SLACK OFF
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER GULF LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 27 54 33 57 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 28 56 36 58 / 0 0 20 10
MSY 35 54 43 56 / 0 0 40 20
GPT 29 54 38 57 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
32
