FXUS65 KPSR 071003
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT CONTINUE...HEAVY AT TIMES...OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
....FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF PHOENIX...FROM WICKENBURG TO CAVE
CREEK/CAREFREE...AND GLOBE/MIAMI. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED FOR MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...OR FROM 5 PM MST TODAY TO 11 AM MST TUE MORNING.
HEAVY RUNOFF IN SOME OF THE DESERTS WASHES IS POSSIBLE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL REGARDING AN
APPROACHING COLD WET WINTER TYPE STORM FOR AZ TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. 09Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE STORM GATHERING
STRENGTH AND GATHERING MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CA
COAST.
SHOWERS AND OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...OR FROM
SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
FOR SOUTHEAST CA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BRIEF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL PEAK ACROSS THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHEAST CA AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE DESERTS TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS VICINITY JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK IS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING.
ALSO...STRONG GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...
SHOWERS AND OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP TODAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AGAIN...PRECIP ESTIMATES WILL RANGE FROM 3/4 OF AN INCH
AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT TO 2 INCHES OVER THE MOUNTAINS JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF PHOENIX. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES...MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAIN/DESERT INTERFACE AREAS FROM WICKENBURG...TO CAVE
CREEK/CAREFREE...AND GLOBE MIAMI BETWEEN 5 PM MST TODAY TO
11 AM MST TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREA
WIDE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A STRONG MOIST PACIFIC WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EVERYWHERE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EVERYWHERE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE MOIST PACIFIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH HARD TO
TIME SMALL DISTURBANCES.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...DRY EVERYWHERE.
&&
AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS INCLUDING KPHX/KIWA AND
SURROUNDING AIRFIELDS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE HIGHLY
ADVERTISED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MAINLY MON/TUE. SHRA WILL
BEGIN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS BY EARLY MORNING /15Z MON/ CIGS
AT OR BELOW 5KFT EXPECTED THROUGH TUE MORNING. MVFR IN LOWERING
CIGS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING...AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS. BY MON EVENING /00Z
TUE/ WINDS WILL FINALLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...GUSTING TO 20KT THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND MOVES THROUGH.
OUT WEST OVER SOUTHEAST CA AND ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY...IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWER CIGS AND SHRA...EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 35KT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 23Z MON-03Z
TUE AS MAIN FRONTAL BAND MOVES THROUGH. COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR IN
HAZE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS NOT AS MUCH PRECIP IS EXPECTED
OUT THIS WAY AS OVER THE AZ CENTRAL DESERTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF DESERT RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND LIGHTER WINDS THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
HUMIDITY LEVELS ALL WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES FROM
FROM 5 PM MST TODAY TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY ZONES AZZ022>024-028.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...WANEK
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
