FXUS61 KALY 282129
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER SUNDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WEAKENS AS THE DEEP LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE...AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ON SUNDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
WITH SOME WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DID FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
SINCE ITS HAS BEEN SHOWING BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE
NAM AND ALSO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE ECMWF.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MID
WEEK RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THERE CONTINUE TO
BE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
IMPACT P-TYPE. THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES
OR EACH OTHER BUT DO CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE
REGION. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WERE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 12Z/GFS AND 12Z/ECMWF ARE. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWS AN ARRAY OF SURFACE LOW POSITIONS. THE
MODELS DO INDICATE A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE DRAWN IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STORM OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
THIS AFTN...ESP AT KALB...WHERE AIR FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY
WILL INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS SOMEWHAT FOR KALB. GUSTS HERE WILL BE
HIGH AS 35-40 KTS THROUGH THE MID AFTN HOURS. BY LATE THIS
AFTN...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL DECREASE MIXING AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...DECREASING THE
WINDS SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO 5-10
KTS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
SKIES ARE VFR ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTN.
TONIGHT...SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL BRING A SCT-BKN DECK AT 3-4
KFT OVERNIGHT TO KALB/KGFL...BUT VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. SKIES WILL SCT OUT FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME JUST
PASSING CU AROUND 3 KFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR/IFR. -RA/-SN.
TUE...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU...MVFR-IFR CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAIN STEM
RIVERS...AND RESERVOIRS WILL RECEDE WITH THE COOL DRY AIR MASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU MONDAY. TOTAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH...WITH UP TO A HALF AN INCH OVER THE ADIRONDACK REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH TOTAL QPF POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN
SOME AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...WASULA
