FXUS63 KIND 031645
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AFTERNOON AT KBMG AND KIND. KHUF 
AND KLAF ARE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MVFR CLOUD SHIELD AND COULD BOUNCE 
UP AND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE POSSIBLY COMING UP 
TO VFR. TIMING THE DEPARTURE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A 
CHALLENGE BUT WILL HAPPEN FIRST AT KHUF AND KLAF AND THEN SPREAD TO 
KIND AND KBMG. TIME HEIGHTS ARE SHOWING THE RISE BY AROUND 6Z AND 
EXPECT IT EARLIER AT KHUF.

&&

.UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST OF CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES 
FAIRLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 STILL LOOKS GOOD. 
NORTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE PUSHING PRECIPITATION FURTHER 
TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL PULL THE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES 
OUT OF THE NORTH FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS TODAY INTO 
THE WEEKEND. 

STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME EASTERN LAKE ERIE AT 07Z 
AND PRECIPITATION WAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS INDIANA AS THE 
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IR SHOWED A VERY 
STRONG UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
THIS TROUGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS IT 
ROTATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL USE 
BLEND. PRECIPITATION WAS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS THE SURFACE LOW 
MOVES NORTHEAST.  AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE STILL REPORTED FROM INDY AND 
NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED UPSTREAM.  I 
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES LATER TODAY...BUT CHANCES OR 
SIGNIFICANCE ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.  HOWEVER I WILL MENTION A FEW 
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES IN OUR NORTH INTO THE MORNING HOURS.  THEN DRY 
WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF CLEARING HAD PUSHED 
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP ENOUGH LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LOTS OF CLOUDS TODAY.  BUT THEY GRADUALLY 
DECREASE THIS MOISTURE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY 
THIS WEEKEND.  WILL CUT BACK IN SKY COVER SOME FRIDAY INTO THE 
WEEKEND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A 
DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AS COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS OUR REGION.  WILL 
GO CLOSER TO COOLER MET TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS AS MODELS DROP 
850 TEMPERATURES TO -11 TO -14 CELSIUS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND 
SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALL MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION 
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS BRING A WEAK 
UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY AND GENERATE SOME 
PRECIPITATION.  THE CANADIAN MODEL IS DRY.  WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE 
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTH TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. 
BUT WILL KEEP CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS DRY FOR NOW.

ALL MODELS BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION BY TUESDAY AS LOW 
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE EUROPEAN WAS A LITTLE 
SLOWER.  

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...CP
UPDATE...CP