FXUS61 KBOX 070745
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
245 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WEAL LOW
PRESSURE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY...THEN A LARGE STORM
WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND WIND. COLDER THAN NORMAL AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ENOUGH WAA-DRIVEN ASCENT MAY DEVELOP TO ALLOW FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND CROSS THE INTERIOR. AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE
COAST LATER IN THE DAY...WEAK SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THIS MAY AID THE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS LATE IN
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SE MASS. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WE EXPECT THAT MOS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TOO HIGH ONCE AGAIN TODAY DUE TO SNOW COVER AND LITTLE MIXING.
THEREFORE...WE CUT BACK ON MOS A BIT. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS SHOULD MOVE OUT TO SEA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
OVERALL...AN UNEVENTFUL DAY IS IN STORE WEATHER WISE FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN UP AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...THEREFORE WINDS WILL TEND TO DIMINISH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THE MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN WITH THIS STORM...THERE ARE
SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING TRACK AND TIMING. THEREFORE AM GOING
TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MOST FIELDS.
THE GENERAL PATTERN IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WITH A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CAROLINAS MOVING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
AT THIS TIME...VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THIS TO BE
MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH COLD COLD AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY. SOMEWHAT WARMER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL OVERWHELM THIS COLD AIR THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING
FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL MAY BE REACHED IN THE DISTANT INTERIOR WHERE IT WILL
SNOW THE LONGEST.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND A PORTION OF THURSDAY WILL BE
WINDS. STRONG WINDS...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...ARE
LIKELY. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
A HIGH WIND WARNING IN THESE AREAS. EASTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWEST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. COUPLED
WITH LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...THIS WILL LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING
POTENTIAL.
AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE THERE ARE MORE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND INDICATES A GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. A GENERALLY DRY...COOLER THAN NORMAL FORECAST EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. ISOLD/SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
VFR CIGS AND WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS
DURING THE EVENING. CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY...VFR.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. GUSTY SFC WINDS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG SFC WINDS CONTINUE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT
IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON MOST MARINE ZONES. LOW PROB FOR THE
REAPPEARANCE OF MARGINAL SCA SEAS ON THE SOUTH COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE VERY EARLY WED MORNING NEARING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN WATERS. EASTERLY GALES LIKELY WED SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST WED NIGHT. WESTERLY GALES PROBABLE THU AND FRI.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT FINALLY HIT THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH 26TH 2009. THE LOW THIS SUNDAY MORNING
WAS 31 DEGREES AT 804 AM. IN 137 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING...THIS IS
THE LONGEST BOSTON HAS EVER WAITED TO GET DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK
DURING THE AUTUMN/WINTER. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS DECEMBER 2ND 1975.
THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO HAVING THE 6TH WARMEST NOVEMBER ON
RECORD...THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT...AND PROBABLY A LITTLE LUCK.
ON AVERAGE...THE FIRST FREEZE TYPICALLY OCCURS THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
GLOUCESTER NWR TRANSMITTER IS OFF THE AIR. RTS UNKNOWN.
WE ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM. JOHNSTON/PROVIDENCE NWR TRANSMITTER
IS BACK ON THE AIR BUT ON LOW POWER...SOME SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS
MAY BE UNABLE TO RECEIVE THE SIGNAL. MORE MAINTENANCE WILL BE DONE ON
MONDAY TO RETURN THIS STATION TO FULL POWER. IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE
SEE OUR WEBSITE... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...EKSTER/RLG
MARINE...EKSTER/RLG
CLIMATE...EKSTER
