FXUS63 KLMK 052014
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING BRINGIN CLEAR 
SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK RADIATIONAL 
COOLING. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SO FAR ARE IN THE MID TEENS...WHICH 
WOULD ARGUE FOR LOWS DOWN IN THAT RANGE BY DAYBREAK. 
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAK VORTMAX 
ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS WOULD SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN 
SOME TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WOULD SLOW THE DROP IN 
TEMPS...BUT STILL FORECASTING THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING WARMER 
TEMPERATURES THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...

A VERY BUSY LONG TERM PERIOD AS A PATTERN OF WET UNSETTLED WEATHER 
CONTINUES. THE STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME ON TUES 
NIGHT/WED WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.  NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES TO THIS 
SYSTEM.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW THROUGH MID MORNING 
ON MONDAY...THEN ENDING WITH LIGHT RAIN.  TEMP PROFILES ARE RUNNING 
A TAD COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO IF THIS VERIFIES WE COULD SEE MORE 
SNOW THAN RAIN MONDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT IN 
NATURE WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.  WILL INCLUDE 
A STATEMENT IN THE HWO ABOUT SLICK SPOTS MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY 
ON BRIDGES/OVERPASSES SINCE WE WILL GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 
LOW 30S FOR LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE THE ONE TO WATCH IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WILL TRAVERSE THE LOWER PLAINS TUES...APPROACHING OUR AREA TUES 
NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SPLIT UPPER JET 
STRUCTURE...AT LEAST A 60 KT H85 JET...PWATS AROUND 1 
INCH...PLENTIFUL 0-6KM SHEAR...AND A THIN STREAM OF CAPE.  ALL OF 
THESE FACTORS WOULD POINT TO A POSSIBLE COOL SEASON SEVERE WEATHER 
OUTBREAK.  SEVERAL ANALOGS AGREE WITH THIS SEVERE THREAT.  WE/RE 
STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT FROM THIS SYSTEM THOUGH SO WE/RE NOT 100% 
CONFIDENT THAT SUCH AN EVENT WOULD OCCUR...HOWEVER THE SIGNAL IS 
PERSISTENT AND DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS.  AT 
THE VERY LEAST...WE MAY HAVE CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS MIXING DOWN 
WINDS OF 30-40 MPH.  IF CONVECTION WOULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH...IT 
WOULDN/T BE HARD TO MIX DOWN 50-60 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  
BE PREPARED FOR WINDY...WET CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH WED NIGHT.  THE MAIN 
RAINFALL...AROUND 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE....WILL FALL LATE TUES 
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL 
CONTINUE ON WED AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  WITH THE COLD FRONT 
OF THIS SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEFT OVER 
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WED EVENING BEFORE 
ENDING.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR 
HIGHS AND MID 20S TO LOW 40S FOR LOWS.  TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TUES 
NIGHT AS A SURGE OF WARM AIR MAKES IT/S WAY INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRONT.  HAVE INCLUDED A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE TO ACCOUNT 
FOR THIS.

THURSDAY - SATURDAY... 

YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY 
NIGHT/SAT.  AT THIS POINT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME FROZEN PRECIP 
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE LAST 
PART OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR ALL BUT KLEX. STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL LOW 
CLOUDS THERE WHICH SHOULD DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS REST OF PERIOD ALL LOCATIONS. MAY HAVE SOME 
HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT NO CONCERNS 
VSBY-WISE.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........RJS
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........RJS